Table F.2.
The estimated maximum time and temperature to stay below different targets corresponding to equivalent log increases as during standard fresh meat preparation for microbiological hazards and spoilage bacteria during wet‐ageing of beef, pork and lamb. The scenarios are predicted based on the minimum, median or maximum values of pH and aw. Maximum time evaluated was 49 days
| Target | Scenario: minimum (a) | Scenario: median (b) | Scenario: maximum (c) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max time (at temperature) | Max temperature (at time) | Max time (at temperature) | Max temperature (at time) | Max time (at temperature) | Max temperature (at time) | |
| Beef | ||||||
| L. monocytogenes | ||||||
| 0.5 | 49 (3) | 4 (25) | 23 (0) | 0 (23) | – (e) | – |
| 1.0 | 49 (4) | 5 (29) | 46 (0) | 1 (23) | 28 (0) | 1 (15) |
| 2.0 | 49 (5) | 4 (49) | 49 (0) | 3 (19) | 49 (0) | 2 (19) |
| 3.0 | 49 (5) | 5 (49) | 49 (1) | 5 (16) | 49 (0) | 3 (20) |
| 4.0 | 49 (5) | 5 (49) | 49 (2) | 5 (22) | 49 (1) | 5 (15) |
| LAB | ||||||
| 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 1.0 | 20 (0) | 0 (20) | 15 (0) | 0 (15) | – | – |
| 2.0 | 40 (0) | 3 (16) | 30 (0) | 2 (15) | 24 (0) | 1 (17) |
| 3.0 | 49 (0) | 5 (16) | 45 (0) | 3 (18) | 36 (0) | 2 (19) |
| 4.0 | 49 (1) | 5 (21) | 49 (0) | 5 (15) | 48 (0) | 4 (15) |
| Pork | ||||||
| L. monocytogenes | ||||||
| 0.5 | 28 (2) | 5 (7) | 17 (0) | 2 (5) | 13 (0) | 1 (7) |
| 1.0 | 28 (3) | 5 (14) | 28 (0) | 4 (5) | 26 (0) | 3 (6) |
| 2.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (1) | 5 (9) | 28 (1) | 5 (6) |
| 3.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (2) | 5 (13) | 28 (1) | 5 (10) |
| 4.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (3) | 5 (18) | 28 (2) | 5 (13) |
| LAB | ||||||
| 0.5 | 28 (0) | 4 (5) | 9 (0) | 1 (6) | 6 (0) | 0 (6) |
| 1.0 | 28 (1) | 5 (9) | 18 (0) | 4 (5) | 12 (0) | 2 (6) |
| 2.0 | 28 (3) | 5 (19) | 28 (0) | 5 (9) | 24 (0) | 5 (6) |
| 3.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (2) | 5 (14) | 28 (0) | 5 (9) |
| 4.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (3) | 5 (18) | 28 (1) | 5 (12) |
| Yersinia (d) | ||||||
| 0.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 1.0 | 8 (0) | 1 (5) | 8 (0) | 1 (5) | 8 (0) | 1 (5) |
| 2.0 | 16 (0) | 4 (5) | 16 (0) | 4 (5) | 16 (0) | 4 (5) |
| 3.0 | 24 (0) | 5 (6) | 24 (0) | 5 (6) | 24 (0) | 5 (6) |
| 4.0 | 28 (0) | 5 (8) | 28 (0) | 5 (8) | 28 (0) | 5 (8) |
| Lamb | ||||||
| L. monocytogenes | ||||||
| 0.5 | 28 (2) | 5 (6) | 26 (0) | 3 (5) | 14 (0) | 1 (7) |
| 1.0 | 28 (3) | 5 (12) | 28 (0) | 5 (5) | 28 (0) | 3 (6) |
| 2.0 | 28 (4) | 5 (24) | 28 (2) | 5 (11) | 28 (1) | 5 (7) |
| 3.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (3) | 5 (17) | 28 (2) | 5 (11) |
| 4.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (4) | 5 (23) | 28 (2) | 5 (15) |
| LAB | ||||||
| 0.5 | 28 (0) | 4 (5) | 9 (0) | 1 (6) | 6 (0) | 0 (6) |
| 1.0 | 28 (1) | 5 (9) | 18 (0) | 4 (5) | 12 (0) | 2 (6) |
| 2.0 | 28 (3) | 5 (18) | 28 (0) | 5 (9) | 24 (0) | 5 (6) |
| 3.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (2) | 5 (14) | 28 (0) | 5 (9) |
| 4.0 | 28 (5) | 5 (28) | 28 (3) | 5 (19) | 28 (1) | 5 (12) |
Minimum scenario – beef: pH = 5.1, aw = 0.97, Minimum scenario – pork: pH = 5.4, aw = 0.95, Minimum scenario – lamb: pH = 5.5, aw = 0.95.
Median scenario – beef: pH = 5.5, aw = 0.98, Median scenario – pork: pH = 5.85, aw = 0.97, Median scenario – lamb: pH = 5.7, aw = 0.97.
Maximum scenario – beef: pH = 5.9, aw = 0.99, Maximum scenario – pork: pH = 6.3, aw = 0.99, Maximum scenario – lamb: pH = 5.9, aw = 0.99.
Yersinia predictive model is a temperature only model, not pH or aw included in the model.
‘–’ indicates that none of the evaluated conditions result in log increases below the target.