Table 4.
HZ and Long‐Term Risk of CVD (Composite) in the NHS, NHS II, and HPFS
| Time since HZ, y | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Never | 1–4 | 5–8 | 9–12 | ≥13 |
| NHS | |||||
| Cases/person‐years | 5960/800 811 | 287/32 100 | 219/22 404 | 134/13 153 | 47/5379 |
| Age‐adjusted HR (95% CI) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.12 (0.99–1.26) | 1.24 (1.08–1.42) | 1.32 (1.11–1.57) | 1.17 (0.88–1.57) |
| Multivariable‐adjusted HR (95% CI)* | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.10 (0.97–1.23) | 1.23 (1.07–1.41) | 1.31 (1.10–1.56) | 1.17 (0.87–1.57) |
| NHS II | |||||
| Cases/person‐years | 1497/1 131 343 | 52/27 538 | 53/20 424 | 40/16 888 | 26/16 840 |
| Age‐adjusted HR (95% CI) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.25 (0.94–1.64) | 1.68 (1.27–2.21) | 1.57 (1.14–2.15) | 1.01 (0.68–1.49) |
| Multivariable‐adjusted HR (95% CI)* | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.16 (0.88–1.53) | 1.53 (1.16–2.01) | 1.39 (1.01–1.90) | 0.88 (0.59–1.29) |
| HPFS | |||||
| Cases/person‐years | 2512/198 791 | 70/4212 | 67/4154 | 44/2980 | 76/4988 |
| Age‐adjusted HR (95% CI) | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.14 (0.90–1.45) | 1.21 (0.95–1.54) | 1.10 (0.82–1.48) | 1.14 (0.90–1.43) |
| Multivariable‐adjusted HR (95% CI)* | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.13 (0.89–1.44) | 1.19 (0.93–1.52) | 1.08 (0.80–1.46) | 1.11 (0.88–1.40) |
| Pooled | |||||
| Total No. of cases | 9969 | 409 | 339 | 218 | 149 |
| Multivariable‐adjusted HR (95% CI)* | 1.00 (Reference) | 1.11 (1.01–1.23) | 1.26 (1.13–1.41) | 1.27 (1.11–1.46) | 1.08 (0.92–1.28) |
CVD is a composite of total stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD), defined as nonfatal or fatal myocardial infarction, fatal CHD, or coronary revascularization procedure. CVD indicates cardiovascular disease; HPFS, Health Professionals Follow‐Up Study; HR, hazard ratio; HZ, herpes zoster; NHS, Nurses' Health Study; and NHS II, Nurses' Health Study II.
Multivariable model adjusted for age, race, family history of heart disease (yes/no), smoking history, body mass index, waist circumference (≤70, 71–79, 80–88, and >88 cm), physical activity, diabetes, hypertension, elevated cholesterol, regular use (≥2 days/week) of aspirin, thiazide diuretics, loop diuretics, “statins,” or other cholesterol‐lowering drugs, calcium‐channel blockers, β‐blockers, angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors, or “other” antihypertensive drugs, Alternative Healthy Eating Index 2010 score, menopausal status (in NHS and NHS II), oral contraceptive use (in NHS II), postmenopausal hormonal therapy use (in NHS and NHS II), and a report of ≥1 of the following: cancer (other than nonmelanoma skin cancer), rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's disease/ulcerative colitis (inflammatory bowel disease), systemic lupus erythematosus, asthma, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or oral steroids/corticosteroid use.