Table 2. Estimated Net Benefit (NB) of the 5 Models Over a Range of Decision Thresholds and Risk Horizons in the Prospective Validation Sample.

Decision thresholda	%
	12 mo			6 mo			3 mo
	Total sample	True-positives	Standardized NB	Total sample	True-positives	Standardized NB	Total sample	True-positives	Standardized NB
150/100 000
Treat all patients	100	100	42.9	100	100	8.3	100	100	−52.9
Lasso model	60.5b	83.0b	48.4b	60.5b	84.9b	29.5b	60.5b	82.3b	−10.1b
Base model	35.2	69.2	49.2	35.2	72.2	40.1	29.9b	71.4b	25.9b
NLP model	30.4	61.8	44.5	30.4	61.2	33.4	30.4	62.6	16.2
SDOH model	100b	100b	42.9b	23.8	56.7	35.0	23.8	60.5	24.2
Combined model	100b	100b	42.9b	17.6	51.8	35.8	17.6	52.4	25.5
200/100 000
Treat all patients	100	100	23.8	100	100	−22.3	100	100	−103.9
Lasso model	60.6	83.0	36.8	36.2b	56.3b	12.2b	36.2b	54.4b	−19.3b
Base model	29.4	61.8	39.5	29.4	65.3	29.4	17.9b	49.0b	12.5b
NLP model	30.4	61.8	38.8	30.4	61.2	24.2	30.4	62.6	0.7
SDOH model	23.0	53.4	36.0	23.0	56.3	28.3	23.0	59.9	13.0
Combined model	40.7b	75.6b	44.7b	17.6	51.8	30.4	17.6	52.4	16.6
300/100 000
Treat all patients	100	100	−14.3	100	100	−83.6	100	100	−206.2
Lasso model	15.8b	35.1b	17.1b	15.4	33.9	5.6	15.4	32.0	−15.3
Base model	10.1	30.0	18.5	10.1	34.3	15.8	10.1	35.4	4.5
NLP model	17.3	42.5	22.8	6.7b	28.2b	15.9b	6.7b	29.9b	9.4b
SDOH model	18.9	46.3	24.8	18.9	49.4	14.9	1.1b	10.2b	6.8b
Combined model	12.1	40.2	26.5	12.1	41.6	19.6	4.8b	25.2b	10.5b
400/100 000
Treat all patients	100	100	−52.6	100	100	−145.1	100	100	−308.7
Lasso model	7.4b	18.6b	7.3b	7.4b	17.1b	−1.0b	7.4b	17.7b	−12.6b
Base model	10.1	30.0	14.7	10.1	34.3	9.6	6.1b	23.1b	−1.6b
NLP model	17.3	42.5	16.2	1.0b	7.3b	4.9b	1.0b	7.5b	3.4b
SDOH model	11.1	32.1	15.2	11.1	36.7	9.6	0.8b	8.2b	4.8b
Combined model	12.1	40.2	21.9	12.1	41.6	12.2	1.9b	12.2b	4.4b
500/100 000
Treat all patients	100	100	−91.0	100	100	−206.6	100	100	−411.4
Lasso model	4.7b	12.2b	3.3b	3.7	8.6	−2.8	3.7	8.8	−10.1
Base model	9.9	29.5	10.8	4.3b	18.4b	5.2b	4.3b	19.0b	−2.9b
NLP model	11.6	33.1	11.0	0.5b	3.3b	1.8b	0.5b	3.4b	1.0b
SDOH model	11.1	32.1	10.9	0.7b	6.9b	4.7b	0.7b	6.8b	3.1b
Combined model	4.4	22.9	14.6	4.4	23.7	10.3	1.3b	8.2b	1.6b

Abbreviations: NLP, natural language processing; SDOH, social determinants of health.

^a For each decision threshold, the assumption is that the decision to implement a preventive intervention would be made only with patients who had a predicted risk above the threshold. See the eMethods in Supplement 1 for a discussion.

^b Logistic calibration. All others were isotonic calibration.