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. 2023 Jan 20;37(4):1199–1211. doi: 10.1007/s00477-022-02357-1

Table 2.

Estimating model indicators

Parameters Prior mean Prior distribution References Posterior mean HPD interval Standard deviation
β 0.96 Beta [1] 0.973 0.948–0.993 0.018
α 0.412 Beta [2] 0.749 0.602–0.881 0.1
ψs 0.302 Gamma [3] 0.221 0.152–0.294 0.05
υ 5.46 Gamma [4] 3.675 2.44–4.984 1.00
oop 0.6 Beta [3] 0.642 0.462–0.817 0.1
δs 0.08 Beta [5] 0.096 0.076–0.117 0.01
ϕ 0.27 Beta [5] 0.281 0.188–0.377 0.05
ρA 0.75 Beta [6] 0.55 0.48–0.619 0.1
ρRoil 0.798 Beta [3] 0.735 0.664–0.802 0.1
ρG 0.8 Beta [6] 0.748 0.618–0.871 0.1
ρXsg 0.35 Beta [3] 0.296 0147–0.446 0.1
εtA 0.07 Invg [3] 0.053 0.0431–0.0652 0.01
εtz 0.07 Invg [3] 0.07 0.051–0.09 0.01
εtRoil 0.07 Invg [3] 0.072 0.061–0.083 0.01
εtG 0.07 Invg [3] 0.0396 0.034–0.044 0.01
εtXsg 0.07 Invg [3] 0.056 0.045–0.068 0.01

[1] Bahrami and Aslani (2011); [2] Rahmani, Samadi, and Bakhshi Dastjerdi (2021); [3] Research Assumption; [4] Yagihashi and Du (2015); [5] Yang et al. (2020); [6] Hosseini and Asgharpur (2021)