Table 3.

Model performance in the derivation and validation data sets

Time, years	Population	Women		Men
		C-statistic (95% CI)	Brier score (95% CI)	C-statistic (95% CI)	Brier score (95% CI)
1	Derivation	0.79 (0.77–0.80)	0.007 (0.006–0.007)	0.75 (0.74–0.77)	0.009 (0.008–0.009)
	Internal validation	0.79 (0.77–0.82)	0.007 (0.006–0.008)	0.75 (0.73–0.78)	0.008 (0.007–0.009)
	External validation	0.81 (0.79–0.84)	0.010 (0.009–0.011)	0.78 (0.75–0.80)	0.011 (0.010–0.012)
2	Derivation	0.80 (0.79–0.81)	0.012 (0.012–0.013)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.016 (0.015–0.016)
	Internal validation	0.80 (0.78–0.82)	0.013 (0.012–0.014)	0.77 (0.76–0.79)	0.015 (0.014–0.016)
	External validation	0.82 (0.80–0.84)	0.016 (0.015–0.018)	0.78 (0.77–0.80)	0.019 (0.017–0.020)
3	Derivation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.019 (0.018–0.020)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.023 (0.022–0.024)
	Internal validation	0.80 (0.78–0.82)	0.019 (0.018–0.021)	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.023 (0.021–0.024)
	External validation	0.81 (0.79–0.82)	0.023 (0.021–0.025)	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.027 (0.025–0.029)
4	Derivation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.026 (0.025–0.027)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.031 (0.030–0.032)
	Internal validation	0.80 (0.78–0.81)	0.026 (0.025–0.028)	0.77 (0.76–0.79)	0.030 (0.029–0.032)
	External validation	0.80 (0.78–0.82)	0.030 (0.028–0.032)	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.036 (0.033–0.038)
5	Derivation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.033 (0.032–0.034)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.039 (0.038–0.040)
	Internal validation	0.79 (0.78–0.81)	0.034 (0.032–0.035)	0.78 (0.77–0.79)	0.039 (0.037–0.041)
	External validation	0.79 (0.77–0.80)	0.038 (0.035–0.041)	0.77 (0.76–0.79)	0.044 (0.042–0.047)
6	Derivation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.041 (0.039–0.042)	0.77 (0.76–0.77)	0.047 (0.046–0.049)
	Internal validation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.040 (0.039–0.042)	0.78 (0.76–0.78)	0.048 (0.046–0.050)
	External validation	0.78 (0.77–0.80)	0.045 (0.042–0.048)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.050 (0.047–0.053)
7	Derivation	0.78 (0.77–0.79)	0.048 (0.046–0.050)	0.76 (0.76–0.77)	0.056 (0.055–0.058)
	Internal validation	0.79 (0.78–0.80)	0.048 (0.046–0.050)	0.77 (0.76–0.79)	0.056 (0.054–0.059)
	External validation	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.052 (0.048–0.055)	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.057 (0.053–0.059)
8	Derivation	0.78 (0.77–0.79)	0.056 (0.054–0.058)	0.76 (0.76–0.77)	0.066 (0.064–0.067)
	Internal validation	0.78 (0.77–0.80)	0.057 (0.054–0.060)	0.76 (0.75–0.78)	0.065 (0.062–0.067)
	External validation	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.060 (0.056–0.064)	0.77 (0.75–0.78)	0.065 (0.061–0.068)
9	Derivation	0.77 (0.76–0.78)	0.065 (0.063–0.068)	0.76 (0.75–0.77)	0.075 (0.073–0.078)
	Internal validation	0.77 (0.76–0.79)	0.066 (0.062–0.069)	0.76 (0.75–0.77)	0.073 (0.070–0.076)
	External validation	0.78 (0.76–0.79)	0.067 (0.062–0.071)	0.77 (0.75–0.79)	0.072 (0.068–0.076)