Table A1.
Data inputs for one-way sensitivity and scenario analysis (children in age group 5–15 years) Part-1.
| Value | Source | Explanations | Calculations | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population cohort | 1,000,000 | Estimates for decision tree | ||||
| Cohort age group | 5–15 years | |||||
| Population 5–15 years (2021) | 233,436,000 | Population Projections for India and States 2011–2036 | ||||
| Annual Bite Incidence | ||||||
| Base case | 4.4% | N Agarwal (2015) | (Proxy) 1 year dog-bite incidence in < 5 years age group in urban settings of Patna in a community based study | 46/1045 = 4.4% | ||
| Lower limit | 2.69% | N Agarwal (2004) | (Proxy) 1 year dog-bite incidence in 5–14 years age group in rural settings of Ballabgarh in a community based study | 6/223 = 2.69% | ||
| Upper limit | 4.68% | Vernekar (2018) | (Proxy) 1 year dog-bite incidence in 6–16 years age group in rural settings of Goa in a community based study | 6–10 = 13/163; 11–16 = 3/179 => 6–16 = 16/342 = 4.68% | ||
| Probability of Bite from a Rabid Animal | ||||||
| Base case | 0.295 | WHO APCRI Survey 2017 | 29.5% of the biting animals showed some signs of suspected rabies in health facility survey | |||
| Lower limit | 0.082 | WHO APCRI Survey 2017 | (Proxy) suspected dog rabies incidence | 12/146 = 8.2% | ||
| Upper limit | 1 | WHO APCRI Survey 2017 | All the biting animals were suspected rabid in community survey | |||
| Probability of Developing Rabies in Cat I Exposure from Rabid Animal | ||||||
| Base case | 0 | Expert opinion | ||||
| Probability of Developing Rabies in Cat II/III Exposure in Absence of Administration or Full Administration of PEP Vaccination | ||||||
| Base case | 0.19 | Shim (2009) | ||||
| Lower limit | 0.13 | Shim (2009) | Lower value of binomial confidence intervals reported in the study | |||
| Upper limit | 0.28 | Shim (2009) | Upper value of binomial confidence intervals reported in the study | |||
| Probability of Developing Rabies in Cat III Exposure in Absence of Administration of RIG in Previously Unimmunized Individuals | ||||||
| Base case | 0.3 | Expert opinion | ||||
| Lower limit | 0.15 | Calculation | (−50% of the base case value) | |||
| Upper limit | 0.45 | Calculation | (+50% of the base case value) | |||
| RIG Administration in Cat III Exposures | ||||||
| Base case | 13.60% | WHO APCRI Survey 2017 | Community Survey | Number of Cat III victims received ERIG = 3; Number of Cat III victims received HRIG = 1; Total number of victims = 22; For ERIG = 3/22 = 13.6%; For HRIG = 1/22 = 4.5% |
||
| Lower limit | 6.80% | Calculation | (−50% of the base case value) | |||
| Upper limit | 20.40% | Calculation | (+50% of the base case value) | |||
| Practice of Seeking PEP after Exposure to Animal Bite | ||||||
| Base case | 88.90% | WHO APCRI Survey 2017 | Community survey | |||
| Lower limit | 78.90% | Calculation | (−10% of the base case value) | |||
| Upper limit | 98.90% | Calculation | (+10% of the base case value) | |||
| Duration of Protection | ||||||
| Base case | 20 years | Suwansrinon (2006) | ||||
| Average Time a Person Lives after the Onset of Rabies | ||||||
| Base case | 5 | Expert opinion | ||||
| Lower limit | 3 | Calculation | (−40% of base case value) | |||
| Upper limit | 7 | Calculation | (+40% of base case value) | |||
| Disability Weight | ||||||
| Base case | 0.655 | Ock (2019) | ||||
| Lower limit | 0.133 | Global burden of diseases | ||||
| Upper limit | 0.797 | Ock (2016) | ||||
| Value | Source | Explanations | Calculations | |||
| Category of Bite | ||||||
| Cat I | Cat II | Cat III | ||||
| Base case | 0.53% | 26.71% | 72.76% | Nandimath (2019) | (Proxy) clinic based study (age specific data) on dog-bitten children below 15 years |
Cat I = 3/569 = 0.53%; Cat II = 152/569 = 26.71%; CatIII = 414/569 = 72.76% |
| Lower limit | 0.53% | 36.71% | 62.76% | Calculations | (−10% in Cat III and subsequent +10% in Cat II) | |
| Upper limit | 0.53% | 16.71% | 82.76% | Calculations | (+10% in Cat III and subsequent −10% in Cat II) | |