Table 2.
Final model for predicting non-breast cancer death in the NHS cohorts and in BWHS
| Predicting non-breast cancer death | NHS development cohort | NHS validation cohort | BWHS | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome being predicted | 10 years | P value | 10 years | P value | 10 years | P value |
| HR | HR | HR | ||||
| n = 48,102 | n = 24,088 | n = 15,001 | ||||
| N for that outcome | 9376 | 4790 | 1592 | |||
| Factors in our final model | ||||||
| Age (per year increase) | 1.11 | < 0.001 | 1.11 | < 0.001 | 1.10 | < 0.001 |
| Highest self-reported Body Mass Index (BMI) in past 10 years: < 20 kg/m2 | 1.63 | < 0.001 | 1.57 | < 0.001 | 2.71 | < 0.001 |
| 20–22.4 kg/m2 | 1.15 | < 0.001 | 1.10 | 0.08 | 1.21 | 0.25 |
| 22.4–24.9 kg/m2 | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| 25–29.9 kg/m2 | 0.91 | 0.003 | 0.87 | < 0.001 | 0.85 | 0.09 |
| 30–34.9 kg/m2 | 0.88 | < 0.001 | 0.80 | < 0.001 | 0.87 | 0.17 |
| 35–39.9 kg/m2 | 0.91 | 0.07 | 0.93 | 0.28 | 0.98 | 0.87 |
| 40+ kg/m2 | 1.10 | 0.10 | 0.97 | 0.70 | 1.28 | 0.03 |
| Average alcohol use per day (highest average use in past 10 years): None | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| 1–4.9 g/day | 0.86 | < 0.001 | 0.94 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 0.20 |
| 5–14.9 g/day | 0.91 | 0.004 | 0.90 | 0.02 | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| 15+ g/day | 1.04 | 0.24 | 0.96 | 0.43 | 1.28 | 0.004 |
| Cigarette use: Never | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| Current | 2.46 | < 0.001 | 2.34 | < 0.001 | 2.66 | < 0.001 |
| Past | 1.35 | < 0.001 | 1.30 | < 0.001 | 1.39 | < 0.001 |
| Limited from walking several blocks: | ||||||
| Not at all | 1 | – | 1 | – | – | – |
| A little/a lot | 1.58 | < 0.001 | 1.53 | < 0.001 | – | – |
| Limited in bathing/dressing oneself: | ||||||
| Not at all | 1 | – | 1 | – | – | – |
| A little or a lot | 1.47 | < 0.001 | 1.48 | < 0.001 | - | – |
| Walking pace: Unable to walk | 1.42 | < 0.001 | 1.40 | < 0.001 | - | – |
| Slow or average (< 3 mph) | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| Brisk/very brisk (≥ 3 mph) | 0.69 | < 0.001 | 0.74 | < 0.001 | 0.72 | < 0.001 |
| High Blood pressure | 1.15 | < 0.001 | 1.21 | < 0.001 | 1.15 | 0.04 |
| Depression | 1.17 | < 0.001 | 1.16 | < 0.001 | 1.10 | 0.14 |
| Hip fracture | 1.31 | < 0.001 | 1.31 | < 0.001 | 1.29 | 0.23 |
| Parkinson’s disease | 2.35 | < 0.001 | 2.32 | < 0.001 | 4.09 | < 0.001 |
| Myocardial infarction | 1.27 | < 0.001 | 1.16 | 0.005 | 1.10 | 0.32 |
| Congestive heart failure | 1.76 | < 0.001 | 1.97 | < 0.001 | 2.12 | < 0.001 |
| Stroke/transient ischemic attack | 1.19 | < 0.001 | 1.24 | < 0.001 | 1.58 | < 0.001 |
| Emphysema/Asthma | 1.29 | < 0.001 | 1.27 | < 0.001 | 1.03 | 0.68 |
| Diabetes | 1.36 | < 0.001 | 1.31 | < 0.001 | 1.46 | < 0.001 |
| Dementia | 3.07 | < 0.001 | 2.88 | < 0.001 | 1.79 | 0.04 |
| Kidney disease | 1.28 | 0.07 | 1.28 | 0.22 | 2.31 | < 0.001 |
| Cancer* | 1.45 | < 0.001 | 1.44 | < 0.001 | 2.60 | < 0.001 |
| Age at menopause (years), < 45 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| 45–49 | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| 50–54 | 0.93 | 0.004 | 0.91 | 0.007 | 0.91 | 0.15 |
| 55+ | 0.87 | 0.002 | 0.86 | 0.02 | 0.97 | 0.72 |
| Mammogram in past 2 years|| No | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – |
| Yes | 0.75 | < 0.001 | 0.74 | < 0.001 | 0.61 | < 0.001 |
| C-index (95% CI) | 0.795 (0.791–0.800) | 0.790 (0.784–0.796) | 0.780 (0.768–0.791) | |||
| C-index (95% CI) when using risk factor regression coefficients from the NHS development cohort in the NHS and BWHS validation cohorts | – | 0.790 (0.784–0.796) | 0.768 (0.757–0.780) | |||
* Significance was defined as a p-value of <0.05
NHS = Nurses’ Health Study, BWHS = Black Women’s Health Study