Table 1.
Model Parameters: Clinical and Cost data.
| Parameters | Baseline value | Range | Reference | Distribution | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum | Maximum | ||||
| Clinical data | |||||
| Weibull survival model of sorafenib | |||||
| OS | Scale= 0.05419, Shape= 1.060795 | – | – | (27) | – |
| PFS | Scale= 0.21713, Shape= 0.81887 | - | - | (27) | - |
| HRs of other regimens versus sorafenib | See the results of network meta-analysis | – | |||
| Proportion (%) of receiving active second-line treatment | |||||
| Brivanib | 0.210 | 0.168 | 0.252 | (4) | Beta |
| Donafenib | 0.372 | 0.298 | 0.446 | (11) | Beta |
| Durvalumab | 0.432 | 0.346 | 0.518 | (18) | Beta |
| Lenvatinib | 0.330 | 0.264 | 0.396 | (9) | Beta |
| Linifanib | 0.363 | 0.290 | 0.436 | (6) | Beta |
| Nivolumab | 0.380 | 0.304 | 0.456 | (10) | Beta |
| Sorafenib | 0.398 | 0.318 | 0.478 | (4–12, 14–19) | Beta |
| Sunitinib | 0.766 | 0.613 | 0.919 | (5) | Beta |
| Tislelizumab | 0.485 | 0.388 | 0.582 | (16) | Beta |
| Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab | 0.360 | 0.288 | 0.432 | (12) | Beta |
| Cabozantinib plus atezolizumab | 0.200 | 0.160 | 0.240 | (15) | Beta |
| Camrelizumab plus rivoceranib | 0.397 | 0.318 | 0.476 | (17) | Beta |
| Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib | 0.441 | 0.353 | 0.529 | (19) | Beta |
| Sintilimab plus IBI305 | 0.290 | 0.232 | 0.348 | (14) | Beta |
| Sorafenib plus erlotinib | 0.450 | 0.360 | 0.540 | (8) | Beta |
| Sorafenib plus doxorubicin | 0.728 | 0.582 | 0.874 | (7) | Beta |
| Risk of main AEs in lenvatinib group | |||||
| Risk of decreased appetite | 0.046 | 0.037 | 0.055 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of AST increased | 0.050 | 0.040 | 0.060 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of thrombocytopenia | 0.055 | 0.044 | 0.066 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of proteinuria | 0.057 | 0.046 | 0.068 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of decreased weight | 0.076 | 0.061 | 0.091 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of hypertension | 0.233 | 0.186 | 0.280 | (9) | Beta |
| Risk of main AEs in tislelizumab group | |||||
| Risk of AST increase | 0.059 | 0.047 | 0.071 | (16) | Beta |
| Risk of main AEs in orther group | See the results of randomized controlled trials | (4–8, 10–12, 14, 15, 17–19) | Beta | ||
| Utility | |||||
| PFS | 0.760 | 0.608 | 0.912 | (27) | Beta |
| PD | 0.680 | 0.544 | 0.60 | (27) | Beta |
| Disutility due to AEs (grade ≧̸3) | 0.160 | 0.128 | 0.192 | (28) | Beta |
| Cost data (US, $) | |||||
| Drug cost, $/per cycle | |||||
| Brivanib | 10,769 | 8,615 | 12,923 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Donafenib | 2,204 | 1,763 | 2,645 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Durvalumab | 2,625 | 2,100 | 3,150 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Lenvatinib | 1,975 | 1,580 | 2,370 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Linifanib | 7,601 | 6,081 | 9,121 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Nivolumab | 2,515 | 2,012 | 3,018 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Sorafenib | 2,422 | 1,938 | 2,906 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Sunitinib | 1,312 | 1,050 | 1,574 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Tislelizumab | 842 | 674 | 1010 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab | 6,624 | 5,299 | 7,945 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Cabozantinib plus atezolizumab | 6,330 | 5,064 | 7,596 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Camrelizumab plus rivoceranib | 1,832 | 1,466 | 2,198 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib | 3,275 | 2,620 | 3,930 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Sintilimab plus IBI305 | 3,819 | 3,055 | 4,583 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Sorafenib plus erlotinib | 2,974 | 2,379 | 3,569 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Sorafenib plus doxorubicin | 2,490 | 1,992 | 2,988 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Regorafenib | 3,154 | 2,523 | 3,785 | Local Charge | Gamma |
| Cost of AEs | |||||
| Brivanib | 74 | 59 | 89 | (29–32) | Gamma |
| Donafenib | 4 | 3 | 5 | (29, 31) | Gamma |
| Durvalumab | 5 | 4 | 6 | (30) | Gamma |
| Lenvatinib | 42 | 34 | 50 | (29–32) | Gamma |
| Linifanib | 96 | 77 | 115 | (29–32) | Gamma |
| Nivolumab | 6 | 5 | 7 | (30) | Gamma |
| Sorafenib | 13 | 10 | 16 | (29–31) | Gamma |
| Sunitinib | 157 | 126 | 188 | (29–33) | Gamma |
| Tislelizumab | 6 | 5 | 7 | (30) | Gamma |
| Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab | 9 | 7 | 11 | (29, 30) | Gamma |
| Cabozantinib plus atezolizumab | 22 | 18 | 26 | (29–31) | Gamma |
| Camrelizumab plus rivoceranib | 117 | 94 | 140 | (29–33) | Gamma |
| Pembrolizumab plus lenvatinib | 26 | 21 | 31 | (29–31) | Gamma |
| Sintilimab plus IBI305 | 49 | 39 | 59 | (29–32) | Gamma |
| Sorafenib plus erlotinib | 154 | 123 | 185 | (27, 29, 30, 33) | Gamma |
| Sorafenib plus doxorubicin | 81 | 65 | 97 | (29, 31–34) | Gamma |
| Follow-up and monitoring per cycle | 228 | 182 | 274 | (35) | Gamma |
| Best supportive care per cycle | 423 | 338 | 508 | (30) | Gamma |
| Terminal care per patient | 2,035 | 1,628 | 2,442 | (35) | Gamma |
| Body weight (kilogram) | 65 | 52 | 78 | (25, 26) | Normal |
| Body surface area (meters2 ) | 1.72 | 1.38 | 2.06 | (25, 26) | Normal |
| Discount rate | 0.03 | 0 | 0.05 | (34) | Uniform |
OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; IBI305, bevacizumab biosimilar; AEs, adverse events; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; NA, not applicable.