Fig. 3. Impact of PDMC.

a Average number of hospitalised malaria episodes averted during the 6 months post-discharge period per child aged 0–5 years given PDMC. b Number needed to treat with PDMC to avert 1 malaria episode requiring hospitalisation. All estimates are shown for subnational (administrative area 1) regions and incorporate imperfect adherence to the three prescribed courses of PDMC as observed in ref. ²³. The assumption in these results is that 50% of cases requiring hospitalisation access hospital care, but there is negligible change in these outputs when this percentage is varied from 30–70%. c Parasite prevalence in 2–10-year old versus average number of hospitalised malaria episodes averted during the 6 months post-discharge period per child aged 0–5 years given PDMC (results from a). Dashed line indicates parasite prevalence above which WHO recommends PDMC¹². d Total and recurrent SMA episodes per 100 person years with and without PDMC (including cases who do not access hospital care as well as those who do). Model estimates are shown in the absence (solid circles) and presence (open circles) of PDMC. Recurrent episodes are those occurring within 6 months of a previous SMA episode. PDMC is given 100% coverage to hospitalised cases only and impact largely occurs in the first 3 months post-discharge. We assumed that 50% of individuals with SMA reach hospital and varied this for sensitivity analysis (Fig. S9). Assuming a lower proportion hospitalised results in larger total estimates of SMA burden in the absence of PDMC, and smaller total impact of PDMC.