Table 5:
Sensitivity Analysis, Adding One Period Lead
| Panel A: Effects of ENDS Tax on ENDS Use and ENDS Perceived Risk | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Current ENDS User | Regular ENDS User | ENDS Initiation | Ever Use ENDS | Current ENDS User | ENDS Perceived Risk |
| ENDS Tax Lead (0, 1) | −0.001 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.002 |
| (0.013) | (0.006) | (0.011) | (0.014) | (0.021) | (0.009) | |
| [−0.027,0.025] | [−0.006,0.016] | [−0.014,0.030] | [−0.026,0.031] | [−0.024, 0.059] | [−0.016,0.019] | |
| <0.952> | <0.364> | <0.476> | <0.856> | <0.406> | <0.849> | |
| ENDS Tax Rate per ml (2019 $) | −0.020+ | −0.012+ | −0.005 | −0.051*** | −0.061** | 0.029* |
| (0.010) | (0.007) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.021) | (0.014) | |
| [−0.041,0.001] | [−0.026,0.002] | [−0.031,0.021] | [−0.074,−0.027] | [−0.104, −0.018] | [0.001,0.058] | |
| <0.068> | <0.098> | <0.695> | <0.000> | <0.006> | <0.043> | |
| Cigarette Tax Rate per Pack (2019 $) | −0.005 | 0.010+ | −0.002 | 0.012 | 0.036 | −0.003 |
| (0.008) | (0.005) | (0.013) | (0.008) | (0.024) | (0.007) | |
| [−0.021,0.011] | [−0.000,0.020] | [−0.029,0.024] | [−0.004,0.029] | [−0.012, 0.083] | [−0.017,0.012] | |
| <0.540> | <0.059> | <0.853> | <0.129> | <0.136> | <0.708> | |
| −0.001 | 0.005 | 0.008 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.002 | |
| Data | MTF | MTF | MTF | MTF | YRBSS | MTF |
| Years | 2014–2019 | 2014–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2014–2018 |
| N | 126,306 | 126,306 | 66,124 | 85,541 | 538,992 | 86,486 |
| Dependent Variable Mean | 0.152 | 0.038 | 0.104 | 0.287 | 0.213 | 0.192 |
| Panel B: Effects of ENDS Tax on Combustible Tobacco Product Use | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Current Cigarette Use | Current Cigarette Use (half pack a day) | Current Cigarette or Cigar Use | Current Cigarette Use | Regular Cigarette Use | Daily Cigarette Use | Current Cigarette or Cigar Use |
| ENDS Tax Lead (0, 1) | −0.003 | −0.002 | −0.003 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 |
| (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.006) | (0.006) | (0.010) | |
| [−0.015,0.009] | [−0.006,0.002] | [−0.016,0.010] | [−0.012, 0.021] | [−0.011, 0.014] | [−0.012, 0.013] | [−0.019, 0.020] | |
| <0.646> | <0.358> | <0.643> | <0.607> | <0.794> | <0.942> | <0.960> | |
| ENDS Tax Rate (2019 $) | 0.012* | 0.006* | 0.011+ | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.015 | 0.007 |
| (0.005) | (0.002) | (0.006) | (0.010) | (0.011) | (0.010) | (0.014) | |
| [0.001,0.023] | [0.001,0.010] | [−0.001,0.022] | [−0.009, 0.031] | [−0.006, 0.040] | [−0.006, 0.035] | [−0.021, 0.036] | |
| <0.029> | <0.012> | <0.066> | <0.291> | <0.145> | <0.166> | <0.612> | |
| Cigarette Tax Rate (2019 $) | −0.001 | −0.002 | −0.002 | −0.010 | −0.012 | −0.009 | −0.012 |
| (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.007) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.017) | |
| [−0.012,0.010] | [−0.006,0.001] | [−0.016,0.012] | [−0.034, 0.013] | [−0.038, 0.015] | [−0.032, 0.015] | [−0.045, 0.022] | |
| <0.855> | <0.187> | <0.787> | <0.378> | <0.372> | <0.471> | <0.492> | |
| Data | MTF | MTF | MTF | YRBSS | YRBSS | YRBSS | YRBSS |
| Years | 2014–2019 | 2014–2019 | 2014–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2015–2019 | 2015–2019 |
| N | 244,360 | 244,360 | 246,192 | 580,788 | 580,788 | 580,788 | 504,639 |
| Dependent Variable Mean | 0.066 | 0.012 | 0.080 | 0.080 | 0.019 | 0.014 | 0.107 |
+
p<0.10,
*
p<0.05,
**
p<0.01,
***
p<0.001
Notes: All MTF models include tax jurisdiction fixed-effects, year-by-quarter fixed-effects, and each of the individual controls and policy/economic covariates listed in Table 2. All YRBSS models include state fixed-effects, year fixed-effects, and each of the individual controls and policy/economic covariates listed in Table 2. Regressions are weighted, standard errors are corrected for clustering at the state level, 95% confidence intervals are shown in [ ] and p-values are shown in < >.