Table 8.

Results of the INGARCH model

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6
Link-Dist	log-nbinom	identity-nbinom	log-nbinom	log-poisson	identity-poisson	log-poisson
Coefficients	Estimate	Estimate	Estimate	Estimate	Estimate	Estimate
Intercept	0.123**	9.530**	0.082**	0.130**	9.530**	0.082**
beta_1	− 0.045**	0.372**	− 0.029**	− 0.045**	0.372**	− 0.029**
alpha_1	0.999**	0.262**	0.999**	0.999**	0.262**	0.999**
UNEMP_M	0.019**	0.053**	0.015**	0.019**	0.053**	0.015**
UNEMP_F	− 0.024**	7.15e−06**	− 0.017**	− 0.024**	7.15e−06**	− 0.017**
INFLATION	–	–	− 8.21e−05	–	–	− 8.21e−05
Sigmasq	0.013**	0.028**	0.011**	–	–	–
Log-likelihood	− 341.452	− 357.562	− 339.404	− 343.048	−367.055	− 340.416
AIC	692.809	727.125	694.904	696.096	744.111	692.833
SIC	710.940	743.162	711.518	709.460	757.475	708.870

^**At the 5% significance level, the null hypothesis is rejected

The bold characters in the table indicate the appropriately selected model.