Table 1.
Model | Input Variables | Internal Validation (School 2 and 3) | External Validation (School 1) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Threshold | AUC (C.I.) | Accuracy (C.I) | Sensitivity (C.I.) | Specificity (C.I.) | Threshold | AUC (C.I.) | Accuracy (C.I) | Sensitivity (C.I.) | Specificity (C.I.) | ||
Image model | Fundus photo | 1.94 | 0.93 (0.89–0.98) | 0.84 (0.84–0.84) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.84 (0.84–0.84) | 1.94 | 0.93 (0.88–0.97) | 0.86 (0.86–0.86) | 0.88 (0.87–0.88) | 0.86 (0.85–0.86) |
Fundus photo + Age + Race + Gender | 1.84 | 0.95 (0.92–0.99) | 0.86 (0.86–0.86) | 0.85 (0.85–0.85) | 0.86 (0.86–0.86) | 1.84 | 0.91 (0.85–0.96) | 0.78 (0.78–0.78) | 0.88 (0.87–0.88) | 0.77 (0.77–0.78) | |
Clinical model | Baseline SEa | 1.74 | 0.90 (0.84–0.96) | 0.80 (0.80–0.80) | 0.77 (0.77–0.77) | 0.80 (0.80–0.80) | 1.74 | 0.93 (0.87–0.98) | 0.65 (0.64–0.65) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.61 (0.61–0.62) |
Baseline SEa + Age + Race + Gender | 1.99 | 0.97 (0.93–0.99) | 0.87 (0.87–0.87) | 0.85 (0.85–0.85) | 0.87 (0.87–0.87) | 1.99 | 0.94 (0.90–0.97) | 0.74 (0.74–0.74) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.72 (0.71–0.72) | |
Baseline SEa + Age + Race + Gender + 1-year SE* progression | 2.06 | 0.98 (0.96–0.99) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 2.06 | 0.97 (0.94–0.99) | 0.84 (0.83–0.84) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.82 (0.82–0.82) | |
Mixed model | Fundus photo + Baseline SEa | 1.98 | 0.97 (0.94–0.99) | 0.93 (0.93–0.93) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.93 (0.93–0.93) | 1.98 | 0.97 (0.94–0.99) | 0.82 (0.82–0.82) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.80 (0.80–0.81) |
Fundus photo + Baseline SEa + Age + Race + Gender | 1.98 | 0.97 (0.95–0.99) | 0.93 (0.93–0.93) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.93 (0.93–0.93) | 1.98 | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 0.82 (0.82–0.82) | 1.00 (1.00–1.00) | 0.80 (0.80–0.81) | |
Fundus photo + Baseline SEa + Age + Race + Gender + 1-year SEa progression | 2 | 0.99 (0.97–1.00) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) | 0.92 (0.92–0.92) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) | 2 | 0.95 (0.92–0.98) | 0.88 (0.88–0.88) | 0.94 (0.94–0.94) | 0.88 (0.88–0.88) |
AUC area-under-curves, C.I. confidence interval.
aSpherical equivalent (SE) was performed using cycloplegic autorefraction.