Table 1.
Projected number of adults 50 years and older with chronic disease in the United States.
| Age cohort | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | Relative change between 2020 and 2050 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | ||||
| Total adult population | 137.25 [135.64–139.18] |
180.40 [175.17–186.85] |
221.13 [213.24–231.34] |
61.11% [57.21% to 66.22%] |
| 50–59 years | 48.318 [48.212–48.419] |
55.755 [55.634–55.870] |
68.555 [68.401–68.700] |
41.88% [41.88% to 41.89%] |
| 60–79 years | 72.001 [71.212–72.910] |
94.610 [92.326–97.129] |
112.40 [109.69–115.39] |
56.11% [54.04% to 58.27%] |
| 80 and older | 16.935 [16.148–17.863] |
30.042 [26.998–33.875] |
40.181 [34.881–47.272] |
137.267% [116.0% to 164.6%] |
| ≥1 chronic condition (million) | ||||
| Adult population | 71.522 [69.065–73.781] |
114.48 [108.87–121.36] |
142.66 [134.74–153.39] |
99.5% [95.1% to 107.9%] |
| 50–59 years | 15.929 [15.181–16.460] |
17.688 [16.820–18.305] |
22.277 [21.192–23.047] |
39.85% [39.59% to 40.01%] |
| 60–79 years | 44.881 [43.462–46.090] |
70.752 [67.520–73.550] |
83.511 [79.670–86.834] |
86.07% [83.31% to 88.40%] |
| 80 and older | 10.711 [10.012–11.662] |
26.040 [23.190–29.936] |
36.875 [31.757–44.038] |
244.3% [217.2% to 277.6%] |
| Multimorbidity (million) | ||||
| Adult population | 7.8304 [6.5965–9.4853] |
12.085 [9.6091–15.490] |
14.968 [11.813–19.277] |
91.16% [79.09% to 103.24%] |
| 50–59 years | 1.6234 [1.3501–1.9254] |
1.7968 [1.4913–2.1314] |
2.2662 [1.8802–2.6889] |
39.6% [39.26% to 39.66%] |
| 60–79 years | 4.9258 [4.1510–6.0167] |
7.4836 [5.8964–9.7171] |
8.8249 [6.9446–11.454] |
79.16% [67.30% to 90.39%] |
| 80 and older | 1.2812 [0.9838–1.5817] |
2.8050 [1.9896–3.8781] |
3.8777 [2.6510–5.5552] |
202.7% [169.5% to 251.2%] |
| Prevalence of ≥1 chronic condition (%) | 21.77 [21.05–22.37] |
34.66 [33.36–36.04] |
47.81 [46.09–49.71] |
119.7% [118.9% to 122.2%] |
| Fraction female | 52.57 [51.77–53.20] |
53.37 [52.43–54.62] |
53.22 [52.07–54.88] |
1.25% [0.57% to 3.16%] |
| Fraction male | 47.43 [46.80–48.23] |
46.63 [45.38–47.57] |
46.78 [45.12–47.93] |
−1.39% [−3.59 to −0.61%] |
| Prevalence of multimorbidity (%) | 2.383 [2.007–2.887] |
3.659% [2.905–4.696] |
5.017 [3.948–6.481] |
110.5% [96.7% to 124.5%] |
| Fraction female | 48.33 [44.71–52.14] |
49.40 [44.54–55.21] |
49.29 [44.21–55.57] |
1.98% [−1.10% to 6.59%] |
| Fraction male | 51.67 [47.86–55.29] |
50.60 [44.79–55.46] |
50.71 [44.43–55.79] |
−1.86% [−7.18% to 0.89%] |