Table 2.
Projected number of non-Hispanic White adults 50 years and older with chronic disease (in millions by sex and age) in the United States.
| Age cohort | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | Relative change between 2020 and 2050 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 chronic condition (million) | ||||
| 50–59 years | 10.347 [9.8407–10.739] |
11.483 [10.893–11.942] |
14.464 [13.725–15.038] |
39.79% [39.48%−40.03%] |
| 60–79 years | 29.260 [28.395–30.063] |
46.139 [44.027–47.866] |
54.453 [51.942–56.510] |
86.10% [82.93%−87.97%] |
| 80 and older | 7.0089 [6.5512–7.5374] |
17.040 [15.209–19.300] |
24.109 [20.849–28.291] |
244.0% [218.3%−275.4%] |
| Total | 46.6159 [44.786–48.339] |
74.662 [70.129–79.108] |
93.026 [86.516–99.839] |
99.55% [93.2%−106.5%] |
| Female | ||||
| 50–59 years | 5.1688 [4.8547–5.4175] |
5.7010 [5.3377–5.9886] |
7.0841 [6.6341–7.4400] |
37.05% [36.65%−37.33%] |
| 60–79 years | 15.1119 [14.500–15.652] |
24.070 [22.700–25.213] |
28.092 [26.472–29.445] |
85.89% [82.56%−88.12%] |
| 80 and older | 4.2173 [3.8823–4.6583] |
10.054 [8.7272–11.916] |
14.308 [11.917–17.784] |
239.3% [207.0%−281.8%] |
| Male | ||||
| 50–59 years | 5.1783 [4.9860–5.3623] |
5.7828 [5.5556–6.0003] |
7.3799 [7.0912–7.6559] |
42.52% [42.22%−42.77%] |
| 60–79 years | 14.148 [13.862–14.451] |
22.068 [21.327–22.789] |
26.360 [25.470–27.223] |
86.32% [83.74%−88.38%] |
| 80 and older | 2.7916 [2.6611–2.9202] |
6.9860 [6.4725–7.5923] |
9.8011 [8.9301–10.897] |
251.1% [235.6%−273.2%] |
| Multimorbidity (million) | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.9972 [0.8259–1.1720] |
1.1019 [0.9096–1.2939] |
1.3900 [1.1474–1.6326] |
39.39% [38.93%−39.31%] |
| 60–79 years | 3.0740 [2.6021–3.7479] |
4.6747 [3.6213–6.1113] |
5.5100 [4.2812–7.1998] |
79.24% [64.53%−92.10%] |
| 80 and older | 0.8215 [0.6546–1.0324] |
1.8122 [1.2028–2.5807] |
2.5120 [1.5697–3.8077] |
205.8% [139.8%−268.8%] |
| Total | 4.8927 [4.0826–5.9523] |
7.5888 [5.7337–9.9859] |
9.412 [6.9983–12.6401] |
92.368% [71.4%−112.4%] |
| Female | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.4511 [0.3521–0.5682] |
0.4962 [0.3860–0.6250] |
0.6167 [0.4795–0.7779] |
36.70% [36.17%−36.91%] |
| 60–79 years | 1.4434 [1.1306–1.9062] |
2.2337 [1.5682–3.2361] |
2.6012 [1.8290–3.7738] |
80.21% [61.77%−97.98%] |
| 80 and older | 0.4669 [0.3514–0.6284] |
1.0161 [0.5919–1.6156] |
1.4210 [0.7573–2.3860] |
204.3% [115.5%−279.7%] |
| Male | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.5461 [0.4727–0.6140] |
0.6058 [0.5224–0.6831] |
0.7734 [0.6667–0.8722] |
41.61% [41.04%−42.05%] |
| 60–79 years | 1.6306 [1.4566–1.8417] |
2.4410 [2.0531–2.8751] |
2.9088 [2.4522–3.4260] |
78.39% [68.35%−86.02%] |
| 80 and older | 0.3546 [0.3032–0.4072] |
0.7961 [0.6109–1.0118] |
1.0910 [0.8124–1.4387] |
207.75 [167.9%−253.3%] |