Table 3.
Projected number of non-Hispanic Black adults 50 years and older with chronic disease (in millions by sex and age) in the United States.
| Age cohort | 2020 | 2035 | 2050 | Relative change between 2020 and 2050 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥1 chronic disease (million) | ||||
| 50–59 years | 1.8920 [1.7732–1.9764] |
2.0731 [1.9372–2.1709] |
2.5934 [2.4242–2.7151] |
37.07% [36.71%−37.37%] |
| 60–79 years | 5.1999 [4.9250–5.4070] |
7.9304 [7.2875–8.4762] |
9.2501 [8.5027–9.8901] |
77.89% [72.64%−82.91%] |
| 80 and older | 1.1075 [0.9373–1.2359] |
2.4979 [1.8941–3.0597] |
3.3778 [2.4076–4.3753] |
205.0% [156.9%−254.0%] |
| Total | 8.1994 [7.6355–8.6193] |
12.5014 [11.118–13.706] |
15.2213 [13.33–16.98] |
85.64% [74.64%−97.01%] |
| Female | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.9467 [0.8744–0.9975] |
1.0329 [0.9505–1.0909] |
1.2791 [1.1773–1.3507] |
35.11% [34.65%−35.41%] |
| 60–79 years | 2.7028 [2.5303–2.8349] |
4.1817 [3.8298–4.4699] |
4.8336 [4.4260–5.1707] |
78.84% [74.92%−82.39%] |
| 80 and older | 0.6737 [0.5631–0.07625] |
1.5029 [1,1131–1.8587] |
2.0498 [1.4143–2.6938] |
204.3% [151.2%−253.3%] |
| Male | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.9453 [0.8974–0.9870] |
1.0402 [0.9848–1.0890] |
1.3143 [1.2445–1.3755] |
39.03% [38.68%−39.37%] |
| 60–79 years | 2.4972 [2.3780–2.5996] |
3.7487 [3.4577–4.0099] |
4.4165 [4.0767–4.7237] |
76.86% [71.44%−81.71%] |
| 80 and older | 0.4337 [0.3742–0.4853] |
0.9949 [0.7809–1.2010] |
1.3280 [0.9934–1.6815] |
206.2% [165.5%−246.5%] |
| Multimorbidity (million) | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.2130 [0.1681–0.2580] |
0.2338 [0.1843–0.2848] |
0.2929 [0.2307–0.3565] |
37.48% [37.27%−38.16%] |
| 60–79 years | 0.6167 [0.4735–0.7695] |
0.9357 [0.6438–1.2800] |
1.0918 [0.7531–1.4922] |
77.05% [59.05%−93.91%] |
| 80 and older | 0.1328 [0.0878–0.1890] |
0.2765 [0.1597–0.4568] |
0.3658 [0.1960–0.6403] |
175.5% [123.1%−238.9%] |
| Total | 0.9625 [0.7294–1.2165] |
1.446 [0.9878–2.0216] |
1.7505 [1.1798–2.489] |
81.87% [61.75%−104.6%] |
| Female | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.0972 [0.0737–0.1241] |
0.1064 [0.0805–0.1365] |
0.1318 [0.0997–0.1691] |
35.53% [35.18%−36.26%] |
| 60–79 years | 0.2963 [0.2135–0.3879] |
0.4604 [0.2880–0.6765] |
0.5319 [0.3329–0.7824] |
79.53% [55.93%−101.6%] |
| 80 and older | 0.0778 [0.0506–0.1117] |
0.1622 [0.0862–0.2635] |
0.2171 [0.1065–0.3743] |
178.9% [110.5%−234.9%] |
| Male | ||||
| 50–59 years | 0.1158 [0.0944–0.1375] |
0.1274 [0.1038–0.1517] |
0.1611 [0.1311–0.1919] |
39.13% [38.905–39.57%] |
| 60–79 years | 0.3204 [0.2523–0.3943] |
0.4753 [0.3457–0.6236] |
0.5599 [0.4082–0.7334] |
74.75% [61.83%−86.00%] |
| 80 and older | 0.0550 [0.0372–0.0778] |
0.1144 [0.0692–0.1933] |
0.1487 [0.0851–0.2667] |
170.6% [128.7%−243.1%] |