Table 2. Scenario analysis of outcomes in the total population under various vaccination scenarios, using the main matrix method for the initial strain, Ghana .
Vaccine prioritization by age group, y | Scenario, % infections |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
500,000 vaccinated in 3 mo | 500,000 vaccinated in 6 mo | 1 million vaccinated in 3 mo | 1 million vaccinated in 6 mo | 2 million vaccinated in 3 mo | 2 million vaccinated in 6 mo | |
Symptomatic infections at peak | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 7.22 | 7.24 | 7.19 | 7.22 | 7.16 | 7.19 |
25–64 | 7.09 | 7.17 | 6.92 | 7.09 | 6.61 | 6.92 |
<25 | 7.01 | 7.13 | 6.75 | 7.01 | 6.26 | 6.75 |
<65 | 7.03 | 7.15 | 6.81 | 7.03 | 6.37 | 6.81 |
Same rate across age groups |
7.04 |
7.15 |
6.83 |
7.04 |
6.40 |
6.83 |
Cumulative infections | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 172.88 | 173.50 | 172.09 | 172.88 | 171.33 | 172.09 |
25 –64 | 170.80 | 172.57 | 167.44 | 170.80 | 161.00 | 167.44 |
<25 | 170.04 | 172.20 | 165.76 | 170.04 | 157.17 | 165.76 |
<65 | 170.28 | 172.43 | 166.19 | 170.28 | 158.20 | 166.19 |
Same rate across age groups |
170.41 |
172.39 |
166.44 |
170.41 |
158.51 |
166.44 |
Deaths | ||||||
Only ≥65 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.17 |
25–64 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
<25 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
<65 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.19 |
Same rate across age groups | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.19 |