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. 2023 Feb;29(2):360–370. doi: 10.3201/eid2902.221098

Table 2. Scenario analysis of outcomes in the total population under various vaccination scenarios, using the main matrix method for the initial strain, Ghana .

Vaccine prioritization by age group, y Scenario, % infections
500,000 vaccinated in 3 mo 500,000 vaccinated in 6 mo 1 million vaccinated in 3 mo 1 million vaccinated in 6 mo 2 million vaccinated in 3 mo 2 million vaccinated in 6 mo
Symptomatic infections at peak
Only ≥65 7.22 7.24 7.19 7.22 7.16 7.19
25–64 7.09 7.17 6.92 7.09 6.61 6.92
<25 7.01 7.13 6.75 7.01 6.26 6.75
<65 7.03 7.15 6.81 7.03 6.37 6.81
Same rate across age groups
7.04
7.15
6.83
7.04
6.40
6.83
Cumulative infections
Only ≥65 172.88 173.50 172.09 172.88 171.33 172.09
25 –64 170.80 172.57 167.44 170.80 161.00 167.44
<25 170.04 172.20 165.76 170.04 157.17 165.76
<65 170.28 172.43 166.19 170.28 158.20 166.19
Same rate across age groups
170.41
172.39
166.44
170.41
158.51
166.44
Deaths
Only ≥65 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17
25–64 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19
<25 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19
<65 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19
Same rate across age groups 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19