Table 1.

Candidate predictors included in the model development process

Group	Characteristic	Measure	Source	Cut-off	References
Demographic	Age	Years	Cohorts	< 65, ≥ 65	n/a
	Gender	Male/Female	Cohorts	n/a	n/a
	Social deprivation	SIMD Quintiles	Cohorts	n/a	n/a
Psychological	Depression	PROMIS SF4a	Questionnaire	T-Score: < 50, ≥ 50	Pilkonis et al. [39]
	Anxiety	PROMIS SF4a	Questionnaire	T-Score: < 50, ≥ 50	Pilkonis et al. [39]
	Sleep disturbance	PROMIS SF4a	Questionnaire	T-Score: < 50, ≥ 50	Yu et al. [71]
	Extraversion	TIPI	Questionnaire	Score: < 5, ≥ 5	Gosling et al. [20]
	Agreeableness	TIPI	Questionnaire	Score: < 5, ≥ 5	Gosling et al. [20]
	Conscientiousness	TIPI	Questionnaire	Score: < 5, ≥ 5	Gosling et al. [20]
	Emotional stability	TIPI	Questionnaire	Score: < 5, ≥ 5	Gosling et al. [20]
	Open to new experiences	TIPI	Questionnaire	Score: < 5, ≥ 5	Gosling et al. [20]
	Pain catastrophising	PCS	Questionnaire	Score: < 30, ≥ 30	Sullivan et al. [56]
	Traumatic events before 18 years of age	Yes/No	Questionnaire	n/a	n/a
	Hospital stay before 18 years of age	Yes/No	Questionnaire	n/a	n/a
Lifestyle	Ever smoked	Yes/No	Questionnaire	n/a	n/a
	Currently drink alcohol	Yes/No	Questionnaire	n/a	n/a
	Physical activity	High/Low	Cohorts	n/a	n/a
	Health-related quality of life	EQ5D-5L	Questionnaire	Index: < 0.800, ≥ 0.800	EuroQol-Group [12]
Clinical	BMI	Kg/m2	Cohorts	< 30, ≥ 30	n/a
	Resting heart rate	BPM	Cohorts	< 100, ≥ 100	n/a
	Blood pressure	mmHg	Cohorts	< 140/90, ≥ 140/90	n/a
	Coronary artery disease/heart disease	ICD-10 codes I20-25/self-reporteda	Cohorts	n/a	n/a
	Stroke	ICD-10 codes I60-61, I63-64/self-reporteda	Cohorts	n/a	n/a
Biomarkers	Glucose	mmol/L	Cohorts	< 7, ≥ 7	n/a
	Creatinine	µmol/L	Cohorts	< 100, ≥ 100	n/a
	Total cholesterol	mmol/L	Cohorts	< 5, ≥ 5	n/a
	High density lipoprotein	mmol/L	Cohorts	< 1, ≥ 1	n/a

BMI body mass index; BPM beats per minute; EQ-5D-5L EuroQoL-five dimensions-five levels; ICD International Classification of Diseases; PCS Pain Catastrophising Scale; PROMIS patient-reported outcomes measurement information system; SF4a short form four answers; SIMD Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation; TIPI ten item personality inventory

^aGoDARTS/GS:SFHS