Table 1.
Projected prevalence and number of youth with diabetes in the U.S., 2060
| Year | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2060 | ||||||
| 2017 | Constant incidence* | Increasing incidence† | ||||
| Prevalence per 1,000 youths (95% CI) | Number of cases × 1,000 (95% CI) | Prevalence per 1,000 youths (95% CI) | Number of cases × 1,000 (95% CI) | Prevalence per 1,000 youths (95% CI) | Number of cases × 1,000 (95% CI) | |
| Type 1 diabetes | 2.2 (2.2; 2.3) | 185 (181; 189) | 2.1 (1.9; 2.5) | 191 (168; 222) | 3.4 (2.3; 5.3) | 306 (205; 476) |
| Hispanic/ Latino | 1.5 (1.4; 1.6) | 31 (29; 32) | 1.7 (1.4; 2.0) | 47 (40; 56) | 2.4 (1.5; 3.8) | 68 (42; 109) |
| NHB | 2.2 (2.0; 2.3) | 27 (25; 28) | 2.2 (1.8; 2.7) | 32 (26; 39) | 5.7 (3.3; 9.9) | 83 (48; 143) |
| NHW | 2.8 (2.7; 2.9) | 124 (120; 127) | 2.9 (2.6; 3.1) | 105 (97; 114) | 3.8 (3.0; 4.7) | 137 (109; 172) |
| NH other race | 0.7 (0.6; 0.8) | 4 (4; 5) | 0.9 (0.6; 1.3) | 8 (6; 13) | 1.8 (0.6; 5.4) | 18 (6; 52) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 0.3 (0.3; 0.4) | 28 (27; 30) | 0.5 (0.5; 0.7) | 48 (41; 58) | 2.5 (1.4; 4.6) | 220 (129; 410) |
| Hispanic/ Latino | 0.5 (0.5; 0.5) | 10 (9; 11) | 0.6 (0.5; 0.7) | 17 (15; 20) | 2.0 (1.1; 3.5) | 56 (32; 98) |
| NHB | 0.9 (0.8; 1.0) | 11 (10; 12) | 1.4 (1.2; 1.6) | 20 (18; 24) | 9.2 (5.5; 15.4) | 134 (80; 224) |
| NHW | 0.1 (0.1; 0.1) | 5 (4; 5) | 0.1 (0.1; 0.2) | 5 (4; 6) | 0.3 (0.1; 0.5) | 9 (5; 18) |
| NH other race | 0.4 (0.3; 0.4) | 2 (2; 3) | 0.6 (0.5; 0.9) | 5 (4; 8) | 1.9 (1.0; 4.9) | 18 (10; 48) |
*In the constant incidence scenario, prevalence was projected under the assumption that the incidence rate did not change between 2017 and 2060.
†In the increasing incidence scenario, prevalence was projected under the assumption that trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continued until 2060.