Table 2.
Projected percent change in prevalence and number of youths with diabetes in the U.S., 2017–2060
| Relative change from 2017 to 2060 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constant incidence* | Increasing incidence† | |||
| Percent change in prevalence (95% CI) | Percent change in number of cases (95% CI) | Percent change in prevalence (95% CI) | Percent change in number of cases (95% CI) | |
| Type 1 diabetes | −5 (−16; 11) | 3 (−9; 21) | 52 (3; 138) | 65 (12; 158) |
| Hispanic/Latino | 10 (−8; 33) | 54 (29; 85) | 59 (−2; 157) | 121 (37; 259) |
| NHB | −1 (−18; 22) | 18 (−3; 46) | 163 (51; 358) | 214 (80; 446) |
| NHW | 1 (−6; 11) | −15 (−22; −7) | 33 (6; 67) | 11 (−11; 39) |
| NH other race | 21 (−17; 86) | 100 (36; 207) | 155 (−14; 670) | 321 (43; 1,171) |
| Type 2 diabetes | 56 (31; 93) | 69 (43; 109) | 612 (325; 1,228) | 673 (362; 1,341) |
| Hispanic/Latino | 20 (0; 46) | 67 (40; 103) | 296 (132; 617) | 452 (223; 899) |
| NHB | 52 (27; 82) | 82 (51; 117) | 901 (484; 1,629) | 1093 (596; 1,960) |
| NHW | 28 (1; 68) | 7 (−16; 41) | 142 (24; 375) | 102 (3; 297) |
| NH other race | 49 (15; 137) | 146 (90; 292) | 406 (163; 1,220) | 735 (334; 2,078) |
*In the constant incidence scenario, prevalence was projected under the assumption that the incidence rate did not change between 2017 and 2060.
†In the increasing incidence scenario, prevalence was projected under the assumption that trends in incidence observed between 2002 and 2017 continued until 2060.