Table 5.

Parameter setting for each variable under different scenarios

Predictors (unit)	Scenario	Baseline	Annual growth rate (%)
		2020	2021–2025	2026–2030	2031–2035	2036–2040
GDP (108 yuan)	i	268,389.36	6.5	5.5	4.5	3.5
	ii/iii/iv/v		5.5	4.5	3.5	2.5
Share of primary industry in GDP (%)	i	7.7	− 1.65	− 1.65	− 1.65	− 2.67
	ii/iii/iv/v		− 3.63	− 1.61	− 1.68	− 1.68
Share of renewable energy in total primary energy supply (%)	i	9.65	2.5	3.5	3	3
	ii		3	4	3.5	3.5
	iii		5.4	6.4	5.9	5.9
	iv		4.2	5.2	4.7	4.7
	v		5.4	6.4	5.9	5.9
Share of natural gas in total energy consumption (%)	i	8.4	8.3	3.7	3.8	3.8
	ii		8.5	3.9	4	4
	iii		13.1	8.5	8.6	8.6
	iv		10.8	6.2	6.3	6.3
	v		13.1	8.5	8.6	8.6
Ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP (%)	i	2.4	3.1	3.3	3.5	3.7
	ii		3.4	3.6	3.8	4
	iii		3.8	4	4.2	4.4
	iv		4.2	4.4	4.6	4.8
	v		4.2	4.4	4.6	4.8
Energy consumption per unit of GDP (tons of standard coal/104 yuan)	i	1.86	− 3.4	-4.4	− 2.4	− 2.9
	ii		− 3.1	− 3.1	− 3	− 2.8
	iii		− 4.2	− 4.2	− 4.1	− 3.9
	iv		− 3.9	− 3.9	− 3.8	− 3.6
	v		− 5.3	− 5.3	− 5.2	− 5
			Parameter values
		2020	2025	2030	2035	2040
Ratio of population aged 15–64 (%)	i	68.55	68.09	67.64	64.54	61.58
	ii/iii/iv/v		69.46	68.22	66.06	63.24
Total energy consumption (104 tons of standard coal)	i	498,000	573,134.65	599,713.52	661,872.56	678,535.04
	ii		556,490.50	592,458.72	604,252.58	593,156.32
	iii		525,193.31	528,114.61	508,771.73	471,801.41
	iv		533,468.25	544,887.66	533,192.56	502,213.72
	v		495,725.82	470,514.36	427,874.42	374,587.84