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Markov Model of Disease Progression with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Patients progressed through a modified “SEIR” process (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered). The infection phases were staged from 0 through 4 in terms of increasing escalation, including use of critical care services. Patients who did not recover from COVID-19 died. Model alternatives to doing nothing included social distancing and a vaccination to avoid entry into the infected phases.
