Table 1.
Model parameters.
| Range for Sensitivity Analysis |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Expected Value | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Source |
|
| ||||
| Infection Population Statistics | ||||
| U.S. Population | 330 million | |||
| Probability of Social Contact (b) | 0.053 | 53 | ||
| Social Contacts per person (c) | 7.00 | 5.25 | 8.75 | 54 |
| Basic Reproduction Number (R0) | 2.26 | 1.70 | 2.83 | 15 |
| Social Contacts per person with Social Distancing | 3.00 | Assumed | ||
| Transition Probabilities | ||||
| S to E | 0.307 | 0.000 | 1.00 | 53 |
| E to I | 0.00023 | 0.004 | 0.006 | 1 53 |
| I to I0 | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.929 | 55 |
| I0 to R* | 1.000 | Assumed | ||
| I to I1* | 0.750 | |||
| I1 to I2* | 0.191 | |||
| I1 to R | 0.809 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 56 |
| I2 to I3 | 0.314 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 57 |
| I2 to R* | 0.686 | |||
| I3 to I4 | 0.115 | 0.000 | 0.531 | 57 |
| I3 to R* | 0.530 | |||
| I3 to Death | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.084 | 1 57 59 |
| I4 to R* | 0.650 | |||
| I4 to Death | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.426 | 1 57 59 |
| Effect Modifiers of Interventions | ||||
| Vaccine Efficacy | 0.900 | 0.675 | 1.000 | Assumed |
| Proportion Vaccinated | 0.600 | 0.450 | 0.750 | 21 |
| Risk Reduction from Herd Immunity | 0.500 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Assumed |
| Daily Costs (USD 2020) | ||||
| I1 Costs | ||||
| Sick Day | $122.86 | $92.15 | $153.58 | 23 |
| Medications | $0.95 | $0.71 | $1.19 | 27 28 |
| I2 Costs | ||||
| Sick Day | $252.87 | $189.65 | $316.09 | 23 |
| Medications | $5.07 | $3.80 | $6.34 | 27 29 |
| Primary care visit and tests | $1,248.70 | $936.53 | $1,560.88 | 30 |
| Urgent care visit and tests | $1,553.38 | $1,165.04 | $1,941.73 | 30 |
| Emergency care visit and tests | $9,253.25 | $6,939.94 | $11,566.56 | 30 |
| I3 and I4 Costs | ||||
| Primary care visit, tests and x-ray | $8,850.19 | $6,637.64 | $11,062.74 | 30 |
| Urgent care visit, tests and x-ray | $9,143.51 | $6,857.63 | $11,429.39 | 30 |
| Emergency care visit, tests and x-ray | $16,843.31 | $12,632.48 | $21,054.14 | 30 |
| Hospital Bed (I3) | $1,432.57 | $1,074.43 | $1,790.71 | 31 |
| ICU Bed (I4) | $3,898.85 | $2,924.14 | $4,873.56 | 31 |
| Vaccination Cost | $65.87 | $49.40 | $82.34 | 32 |
| Utilities (QALYs) | ||||
| Utility of Susceptible (S) | 0.880 | 0.018 | 1.000 | 33 58 |
| Utility of Exposed (E) | 0.880 | 0.018 | 1.000 | 58 |
| Utility of Infected (I) | 0.833 | 0.017 | 1.000 | 58 |
| Utility of Asymptomatic (I0) | 0.833 | 0.017 | 1.000 | 58 |
| Utility of Mild Symptoms (I2) | 0.614 | 0.012 | 1.000 | 53 |
| Utility of Moderate Symptoms (I2) | 0.500 | 0.010 | 0.990 | 58 |
| Utility of Severe Symptoms (I3) | 0.250 | 0.005 | 0.495 | 58 |
| Utility of Critical Care (I4) | 0.050 | 0.001 | 0.099 | 58 |
| Utility of Death | 0.000 | Anchor | ||
| Utility of Recover (R) | 0.880 | 0.018 | 1.000 | 33 58 |
| Utility with Vaccine | 0.900 | 0.018 | 1.000 | 33 36 58 |
*
Remainder from 1.0
S = Susceptible; E = Exposed; I = Infection; R = Recovered; ICU = Intensive Care Unit