Table 5.

Comparisons of transition probabilities, utilities, sources of cost data, and modeling strategy

References	Transition probabilities	Applied health utility	Source of data	Modeling strategy
Gottlob et al. [12]	Risk of late meniscal surgery: early ACLR vs CTa = 0.78:3.5	Vignette method, based on functional activity level, by giving a questionnaire to healthy students Utility range: 0–1 Athlete return vs no return to play: 1.00 vs 0.43–0.62	Cost of early ACLR from database of Chicago hospital Cost of CTa based on local referral facility's prices	Decision tree
Farshad et al. [10]	Revision rate after initial early ACLR: 3.5% Rate of delayed reconstruction after initial CT: 16% Rate of sequelae after early ACLR: 34% (86% OA, 14% meniscal lesion) Rate of sequelae after initial CT: 77% (74% OA, 26% meniscal lesion)	Vignette method, based on functional activity level by expert opinion Utility range: 0–1 Early ACLR: 0.78 CT: 0.66	Orthopedic University Hospital Balgrist, Switzerland Cost of early ACLR and delayed ACLR: Swiss National Insurance System for Injuries (UVG)	Decision tree
Mather et al. [18]	Rate of reoperation after initial early ACLR: 36% Rate of reoperation after initial CT: 26% Rate of OA: 3% Annual re-injury after early ACLR: 1.5% Rehabilitation ratio CTa/early ACLR: 1	SF6D Unstable knee: 0.71 Stable knee: 0.82	MOON database and KANON study Cost of early ACLR and CTa: Medicare insurance	Markov Model
Mather et al. [17]	Rate of delayed reconstruction after initial CT in 2 years: 55% Rate of reoperation after initial early ACLR: 32% Rate of reoperation after initial CT: 36% Rehabilitation ratio delayed ACLR/early ACLR: 1.125	SF6D Unstable knee: 0.71 Stable knee: 0.82	MOON database and KANON study Cost of early ACLR and delayed ACLR: Medicare insurance	Markov Model
Kiadaliri et al. [15]	Annual re-injury after early ACLR: 2.3% Meniscus operation rate of early ACLR vs. delayed ACLR: 0.8 Rate of delayed reconstruction after initial CT: 51% Rehabilitation ratio delayed ACLR/early ACLR: 0.98	SF6D Early ACLR: 0.61–0.85 Delayed ACLR: 0.61–0.84	KANON study Cost of early ACLR and delayed ACLR: Skane Healthcare	Trial based
Stewart et al. [38]	Probability of return to play: early ACLR vs delayed ACLR: 0.610:0.177 Rate of late cartilage surgery early ACLR vs delayed ACLR; return or no return to play: 0.018/ 0.005 vs 0.043/ 0.022	Convert from SF-36 to EQ5D Athlete return vs not return to play: 0.89–1.00 vs 0.62–0.89	Cost of early ACLR and delayed ACLR: Based on Academic medical center, US-cost accounting system	Markov Model
Eggerding et al. [8]	Rate of delayed reconstruction after initial CT: 50%	EQ5D Early ACLR and delayed ACLR: 0.72–0.84	COMPARE study	Trial based

early ACLR early anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction surgery, CT conservative treatment, CTa conservative treatment alone, delayed ACLR conservative treatment with optional delayed anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, OA osteoarthritis; SF6D, Short Form-6 Dimension, EQ5D Euro Quality Of Life-5 Dimension, SF-36 36-Item Short Form Survey, MOON Multicenter Orthopedic Outcomes Network, KANON Knee Anterior Cruciate Ligament Nonsurgical Versus Surgical Treatment, COMPARE Conservative Versus Operative Methods For Patients With Anterior Cruciate Ligament Rupture Evaluation