Table 3.
Multivariable Models of daily change in violence-related Injuries Treated in Hospital, annual rates per million people by Pandemic period from Illinois Inpatient and Outpatient Hospital Databases: January 2016 – June 2021.
| Trend (SE) | Lockdown 1 (SE) | Post Lockdown 1 (SE) | Lockdown 2 (SE) | Post Lockdown 2 (SE) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All violent injuries | 0.0004 (0.0001)* | −2.55 (0.36)*** | 0.19 (0.32) | −1.11 (0.40)** | −0.66 (0.26)* |
| Inpatients | −0.00009 (0.00002)*** | 0.01 (0.04) | 0.17 (0.04)*** | 0.11 (0.05)* | 0.20 (0.03)*** |
| Gender | |||||
| Male | 0.0007 (0.0003) | −1.88 (0.46)*** | 0.75 (0.42) | −1.06 (0.51)* | −0.43 (0.33) |
| Female | 0.0007 (0.0001)*** | −3.20 (0.31)*** | −0.37 (0.27) | −1.19 (0.34)** | −0.90 (0.22)*** |
| Age Group | |||||
| 0 – 4 years | 0.0005 (0.0002)** | −1.34 (0.31)*** | −0.26 (0.28) | −1.23 (0.35)** | −0.76 (0.22)** |
| 5 – 9 years | 0.0005 (0.0002)** | −2.17 (0.32)*** | −1.34 (0.29)*** | −1.57 (0.35)*** | −0.80 (0.22)** |
| 10 – 14 years | 0.0015 (0.0004)*** | −4.55 (0.66)*** | −1.84 (0.59)** | −2.71 (0.72)** | −0.97 (0.46)* |
| 15 – 19 years | −0.00009 (0.0005) | −5.26 (0.89)*** | −0.72 (0.79) | −2.72 (0.98)** | −1.37 (0.63)* |
| 20 – 24 years | −0.001 (0.0007)*** | −5.06 (1.36)** | 2.35 (1.22) | −0.49 (1.50) | −0.78 (0.96) |
| Males 20 – 24 years | −0.004 (0.0009)*** | −3.10 (1.67) | 3.59 (1.49)* | 0.43 (1.83) | 0.89 (1.18) |
| Females 20 – 24 years | −0.0002 (0.0008) | −5.85 (1.40)*** | 2.10 (1.26) | 0.37 (1.54) | −0.39 (0.99) |
| 25 – 34 years | 0.0008 (0.0006) | −4.93 (1.09)*** | 1.73 (0.98) | −1.59 (1.20) | −1.54 (0.77)* |
| 35 – 44 years | 0.001 (0.0003)** | −2.53 (0.62)*** | 0.34 (0.55) | −1.07 (0.68) | −0.41 (0.44) |
| 45 – 54 years | 0.0004 (0.0002) | −2.06 (0.40)*** | −0.60 (0.35) | −1.71 (0.44)*** | −1.16 (0.28)*** |
| 55 – 64 years | 0.0006 (0.0001)*** | −0.87 (0.27)** | 0.04 (0.24) | −0.80 (0.29)** | −0.50 (0.19)** |
| 65 – 74 years | 0.0003 (0.0001)** | −0.43 (0.19)* | −0.03 (0.17) | 0.01 (0.21) | −0.01 (0.08) |
| 75 + years | 0.0001 (0.00009) | −0.23 (0.17) | 0.06 (0.15) | 0.12 (0.18) | 0.14 (0.12) |
| Race/Ethnicity | |||||
| African-American | 0.0028 (0.0006)*** | −6.46 (1.12)*** | 2.03 (1.00)* | −3.39 (1.23)** | −3.70 (0.79)*** |
| Hispanic | 0.0008 (0.0002)** | −2.61 (0.44)*** | 0.46 (0.39) | −0.67 (0.48) | 0.60 (0.31) |
| Non-Hispanic White | −4.11E-7 (0.0001) | −1.81 (0.22)*** | −0.29 (0.20) | −0.69 (0.24)** | −0.36 (0.15)* |
| Region of Residence | |||||
| Chicago Resident | 0.002 (0.0007)** | −3.91 (0.65)*** | 0.33 (0.53) | −2.90 (0.68)*** | −2.77 (0.50)*** |
| Suburban Cook County Resident | 0.0005 (0.0002)* | −3.16 (0.37)*** | −0.32 (0.32) | −1.37 (0.40)** | −1.02 (0.26)*** |
| Rest of Illinois Resident | −0.00005 (0.0001) | −1.92 (0.32)*** | 0.22 (0.29) | −0.51 (0.36) | 0.02 (0.23) |
| Mechanism | |||||
| Firearm injuries | −0.0002 (0.00002)*** | 0.17 (0.05)** | 0.33 (0.05)*** | 0.17 (0.06)** | 0.27 (0.04)*** |
| Chicago Resident firearm | −0.0007 (0.0002) | 0.68 (0.16)*** | 1.26 (0.13)*** | 0.62 (0.17)** | 0.96 (0.12)*** |
| Sub Cook County firearm | −0.00009 (0.00005) | 0.13 (0.08) | 0.20 (0.07)** | 0.02 (0.08) | 0.16 (0.05)** |
| Rest of Illinois firearm | −0.00003 (0.00001)* | 0.05 (0.03) | 0.09 (0.03)** | 0.11 (0.04)** | 0.09 (0.02)*** |
| 15 to 34 firearm | −0.0006 (0.00008)*** | 0.48 (0.16)** | 0.95 (0.14)*** | 0.42 (0.17)* | 0.64 (0.11)*** |
| 35 to 64 firearm | −0.00008 (0.0002)** | 0.12 (0.04)** | 0.16 (0.04)*** | 0.09 (0.05) | 0.22 (0.03)*** |
| 65 and over firearm | −0.00001 (0.00001) | 0.003 (0.02) | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.04 (0.02) | 0.02 (0.01) |
| African-American firearm | −0.001 (0.0002)*** | 0.99 (0.29)** | 1.98 (0.26)*** | 1.16 (0.32)** | 1.65 (0.21)*** |
| Bodily Force | 0.0006 (0.0001)*** | −2.03 (0.23)*** | −0.32 (0.20) | −1.04 (0.25)*** | −0.84 (0.16)*** |
| Domestic violence | 0.00004 (0.00001)** | −0.06 (0.03)* | −0.02 (0.02) | −0.10 (0.03)** | −0.07 (0.02)** |
| Female domestic violence | 0.00007 (0.00003)** | −0.12 (0.05)** | −0.01 (0.04) | −0.17 (0.05)** | −0.09 (0.03)** |
| Sexual assault | 0.0002 (0.00003)*** | −0.48 (0.05)*** | −0.19 (0.04)*** | −0.32 (0.05)*** | −0.17 (0.04)*** |
| Female sexual assault | 0.0004 (0.00005)*** | −0.81 (0.09)*** | −0.27 (0.08)** | −0.48 (0.10)*** | −0.25 (0.06)** |
| Sharp objects | 0.00003 (0.00002) | −0.03 (0.04) | 0.09 (0.04)* | −0.05 (0.05) | −0.07 (0.03)* |
| Blunt / Sports equipment | −0.0002 (0.00003)*** | −0.10 (0.06) | 0.16 (0.05)** | 0.04 (0.06) | 0.05 (0.04) |
**=<0.0001, **=<0.01, *=<0.05
(Each model controls for serial correlation (AR1), seasonality, socioeconomic covariates, overall trend)
Intercept dates 01/01/16–03/15/20
Lockdown 1 dates 03/16/20 – 05/29/20
Post lockdown 1 dates 05/30/20 – 11/17/20
Lockdown 2 dates 11/18/20 – 02/01/21
Post lockdown 2 dates 02/02/21–31/03/22.
SE = standard error.