Table 2. Key parameters input in the model.
Variable | Value | Range | Distribution | Reference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Transition probabilities | ||||
Anlotinib group | ||||
Progression from stable state | 0.039 | 0.031 to 0.047 | Beta | [9] |
Death from stable state | 0.022 | 0.018 to 0.026 | Beta | [9] |
Mortality after progression | 0.050 | 0.040 to 0.061 | Beta | [9] |
Sunitinib group | ||||
Progression from stable state | 0.041 | 0.033 to 0.049 | Beta | [9] |
Death from stable state | 0.022 | 0.018 to 0.026 | Beta | [9] |
Mortality after progression | 0.049 | 0.039 to 0.059 | Beta | [9] |
Utilities | ||||
Stable state | 0.730 | 0.584 to 0.876 | Beta | [15–17] |
Progressive state | 0.660 | 0.528 to 0.792 | Beta | [15–17] |
Disutility due to AEs (grade ≥3) | 0.157 | 0.126 to 0.188 | Beta | [15–17] |
Costs per cycle, $ | ||||
Anlotinib | 864.76 | 691.81 to 1037.71 | Gamma | Local charge |
Sunitinib | 1830.48 | 1464.38 to 2196.58 | Gamma | Local charge |
Societal costs | 54.58 | 43.66 to 65.50 | Gamma | [14] |
Tests | 248.96 | 199.17 to 298.75 | Gamma | Local charge |
Outpatient fees | 6.32 | 5.06 to 7.58 | Gamma | Local charge |
Grade ≥3AEs in anlotinib group | 23.76 | 19.01 to 28.51 | Gamma | Expert Opinion |
Grade ≥3AEs in sunitinib group | 265.44 | 212.35 to 318.53 | Gamma | Expert Opinion |
Costs for progressive state | 4535.08 | 3628.06 to 5442.10 | Gamma | [15] |