Table 2. Observed and predicted ORs of ADR-related and emergency hospital admissions stratified by deciles of predicted probability of being a case.

Decile	Development				Validation
	Predicted probability of being case	Observed probability of being case	Predicted OR	Observed OR (95% CI)	Predicted probability of being case	Observed probability of being case	Predicted OR	Observed OR (95% CI)
ADR-related hospital admission
1	0.08	0.08	reference	reference	0.08	0.08	reference	reference
2	0.10	0.09	1.06	1.29 (1.23–1.36)	0.10	0.09	1.06	1.30 (1.19–1.41)
3	0.11	0.10	1.15	1.35 (1.29–1.42)	0.11	0.10	1.15	1.49 (1.36–1.62)
4	0.12	0.12	1.43	1.55 (1.48–1.62)	0.12	0.12	1.43	1.68 (1.55–1.82)
5	0.13	0.13	1.59	1.65 (1.57–1.73)	0.13	0.13	1.59	1.83 (1.69–1.99)
6	0.15	0.15	1.82	2.01 (1.92–2.11)	0.14	0.15	1.82	2.09 (1.93–2.27)
7	0.18	0.18	2.10	2.51 (2.40–2.62)	0.18	0.18	2.10	2.75 (2.55–2.98)
8	0.20	0.22	2.61	2.93 (2.80–3.06)	0.20	0.22	2.60	3.05 (2.82–3.29)
9	0.24	0.26	3.14	3.77 (3.61–3.93)	0.24	0.26	3.11	4.02 (3.73–4.34)
10	0.37	0.35	4.21	6.90 (6.62–7.20)	0.37	0.35	4.18	7.16 (6.65–7.72)
Emergency hospital admission
1	0.10	0.09	reference	reference	0.10	0.09	reference	reference
2	0.11	0.10	1.10	1.20 (1.18–1.22)	0.11	0.10	1.10	1.18 (1.15–1.22)
3	0.12	0.12	1.30	1.36 (1.34–1.38)	0.12	0.12	1.30	1.35 (1.31–1.39)
4	0.14	0.13	1.42	1.60 (1.57–1.63)	0.14	0.13	1.42	1.55 (1.50–1.60)
5	0.15	0.15	1.58	1.68 (1.65–1.71)	0.14	0.15	1.59	1.62 (1.58–1.67)
6	0.16	0.16	1.72	1.81 (1.78–1.84)	0.16	0.16	1.73	1.83 (1.77–1.88)
7	0.17	0.18	1.88	2.01 (1.98–2.05)	0.17	0.18	1.89	1.96 (1.91–2.02)
8	0.19	0.20	2.10	2.29 (2.25–2.33)	0.20	0.20	2.11	2.30 (2.24–2.37)
9	0.22	0.23	2.44	2.76 (2.72–2.81)	0.22	0.23	2.47	2.76 (2.69–2.84)
10	0.30	0.29	3.05	4.05 (3.99–4.11)	0.30	0.29	3.09	4.06 (3.95–4.17)