Table 3. Association Between Long-term Change in N-Terminal Pro–B-Type Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) With Risk for Incident Heart Failure Events and All-Cause Death.
| Factor | Hazard ratio (95% CI)a | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Change (continuous variable) | Change category | |||
| >25% Decrease | ≤25% Change | >25% Increase | ||
| Incident heart failure hospitalization | ||||
| Model 1b | 1.09 (1.06-1.12) | 1.24 (1.06-1.46) | 1 [Reference] | 2.43 (2.00-2.96) |
| Model 2c | 1.06 (1.02-1.10) | 1.11 (0.89-1.40) | 1 [Reference] | 1.84 (1.37-2.48) |
| Model 3d | 1.12 (1.09-1.16) | 0.91 (0.72-1.14) | 1 [Reference] | 4.38 (3.04-6.32) |
| Model 4e | 0.98 (0.93-1.03) | 1.27 (1.00-1.60) | 1 [Reference] | 1.26 (0.91-1.74) |
| All-cause death | ||||
| Model 1b | 1.08 (1.06-1.10) | 1.08 (0.96-1.20) | 1 [Reference] | 1.82 (1.59-2.09) |
| Model 2c | 1.05 (1.03-1.08) | 0.96 (0.82-1.12) | 1 [Reference] | 1.54 (1.26-1.89) |
| Model 3d | 1.07 (1.05-1.09) | 0.87 (0.74-1.03) | 1 [Reference] | 2.25 (1.75-2.88) |
| Model 4e | 1.01 (0.98-1.04) | 1.02 (0.87-1.19) | 1 [Reference] | 1.25 (1.002-1.55) |
a
Percent change modeled continuously as well as a categorical variable.
b
Model 1: age, sex, and race.
c
Model 2: model 1 plus systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, hypertensive medication use, diabetes, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride level, cholesterol-lowering medication use, cigarette smoking, estimated glomerular filtration rate, body mass index, and prevalent coronary heart disease.
d
Model 3: model 2 plus visit 2 NT-proBNP (log-transformed).
e
Model 4: model 2 plus visit 4 NT-proBNP (log-transformed).