Table 1.
Data and Parameters Required for the Australia Smoking and Vaping Model
| Input parameters | Description | Data source or estimate with ranges |
|---|---|---|
| Population | Population by age, gender, and year (2017–2080) | Australian population projections UN41 |
| Mortality rates | Overall mortality rate by age, gender, and year (2017–2080) | Human Mortality Database.42 University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Exponentially extrapolated future rates using 2007–2017 trends. |
| Expected life years | Life expectancy by age, gender, and year in 2017–2080 | Human Mortality Database.42 University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Linearly extrapolated the future rates using 2007–2017 trends. |
| Smoking prevalence | Current and former smoking prevalence by age and gender for 2017/18 | Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Health Survey 2017–201812 |
| NVP relative risk multiplier | Excess mortality risk of NVP use measured relative to excess smoking risks | NVP excess mortality risks are estimated at 5%28and 40%. |
| NVP Switching rate | Rate of switching from smoking cigarettes to exclusive NVP use | 4.0% (2.5%) for ages <24, 2.5% (2%) ages 25–34, 2.5% (1.6%) ages 35–44, 1.3% (1.4%) ages 45–54, 1.2% (1.4%) ages 55–64, and 0.6% (1%) ages ≥65 , estimated from 2013 to 2017 PATH. Bounds at 50%–150% of the above rates and a 10% decay rate were considered in sensitivity analysis. |
| Smoking initiation multiplier in thePermissiveNVP Scenario | Ratio of smoking initiation rate in the Permissive NVP Scenario to smoking initiation in the Restricted NVP Scenario | 60% (30%–90%) of the Restricted smoking initiation rate,26,27,51,52as applied to never cigarette and NVP users. |
| NVP initiation multiplier in the Permissive NVP Scenario | Ratio of NVP initiation rate in the Permissive NVP Scenario to smoking initiation in the Restricted NVP Scenario | 75% (50%–200%) of the Restricted NVP smoking initiation rate,53,54as applied to never cigarette and NVP users. |
| Smoking cessation multiplier in thePermissiveNVP Scenario | Ratio of smoking cessation rate in the Permissive NVP Scenario to smoking cessation in the Restricted NVP Scenario | 100% (50%–100%) of the Restricted NVP smoking cessation rate as applied to current NVP users. |
| NVP cessation multiplier in the Permissive NVP Scenario | Ratio of NVP cessation rate in the Permissive NVP Scenario to smoking cessation in the Restricted NVP Scenario | 100% (50%–100%) of the Restricted NVP smoking cessation rate as applied to current smokers. |
NVP = nicotine vaping product; Restricted NVP Scenario refers to values under the current policy where NVP use is restricted; Permissive NVP Scenario refers to values in the assumption of less restricted NVP use.