Table 2.
The Australian Smoking and Vaping Model, Restricted NVP Versus Permissive NVP Scenario, 5% NVP Risks, All Cohorts With New Births, Ages 18–99, 2017–2080
| Scenario | Year | 2017 | 2021 | 2026 | 2040 | 2060 | 2080 | Cumulative* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | ||||||||
| Restricted NVP Scenario | Smokers (%) | 16.1 | 14.5% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | — |
| NVP users (%) | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.15% | — | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.33% | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.11% | — | |
| SVADs | 17 197 | 16 970 | 17 508 | 18 185 | 14 254 | 8922 | 986 793 | |
| LYLs | 179 806 | 181 739 | 181 506 | 162 751 | 117 637 | 72 276 | 8 882 810 | |
| Permissive NVP Scenario*** | Smokers (%) | 16.1% | 14.5% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | — |
| NVP users (%) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | — | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | — | |
| SVADs | 17 197 | 16 970 | 17,251 | 17 207 | 12 690 | 6670 | 913 219 | |
| LYLs | 179 806 | 181 739 | 175,831 | 142 023 | 84 073 | 32 209 | 7 356 119 | |
| Difference**** | Smokers averted(%) | — | — | 13% | 46% | 68% | 71% | — |
| SVADs averted | — | — | 258 | 978 | 1564 | 2252 | 73 574 | |
| LYLs averted | — | — | 5675 | 20 727 | 33 564 | 40 066 | 1 526 691 | |
| Female` | ||||||||
| Restricted NVP Scenario | Smokers (%) | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | — |
| NVP users (%) | 0.23% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.14% | 0.15% | 0.15% | — | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.20% | 0.12% | 0.07% | — | |
| SVADs | 5593 | 5306 | 5497 | 6499 | 5885 | 3721 | 362 420 | |
| LYLs | 58 176 | 59 626 | 60 960 | 56 404 | 39 855 | 24 999 | 3 016 399 | |
| Permissive NVP Scenario | Smokers (%) | 10.8% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | — |
| NVP users (%) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | — | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | — | |
| SVADs | 5593 | 5306 | 5344 | 6027 | 5237 | 2949 | 331 749 | |
| LYLs | 58 176 | 59 626 | 58 248 | 48 309 | 28 594 | 12 622 | 2 488 185 | |
| Difference | Smokers averted (%) | — | — | 11% | 38% | 59% | 64% | — |
| SVADs averted | — | — | 153 | 473 | 648 | 772 | 30 671 | |
| LYLs averted | — | — | 2712 | 8096 | 11 262 | 12 378 | 528 213 | |
| Both genders | ||||||||
| Difference | SVADs averted | — | — | 411 | 1,451 | 2212 | 3023 | 104 245 |
| LYLs averted | — | — | 8387 | 28 823 | 44 826 | 52 444 | 2 054 904 | |
| SVADs averted (%) | — | — | 1.8% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 23.9% | 7.7% | |
| LYLs averted (%) | — | — | 3.5% | 13.2% | 28.5% | 53.9% | 17.3% | |
Abbreviations: NVP = nicotine vaping product, LYL = Life years lost, SVADs = smoking and vaping attributable deaths.
*Cumulative results include the deaths and life-years lost, which are the sum of attributable deaths or life-years lost over the years 2017–2080.
**Restricted NVP Scenario refers to values in the assumption of restricted NVP use.
***Permissive NVP Scenario refers to values relative to less restricted NVP use.
****Difference between the Restricted NVP Scenario and Permissive NVP Scenario includes the percent averted smokers (measured by the relative reduction in the smoking prevalence each year) by gender, averted SVADs, and LYLs for males, females, and both genders. The relative differences (%) of averted SVADs and LYLs are also available for both genders by using formulas:
SVADs averted (%) = SVAD averted/SVADRestricted NVP; LYLs averted (%) = LYL averted/LYLRestricted NVP.