Table 3.
Australian Smoking and Vaping Model, Averted Smoking- and Vaping-Attributable Deaths and Life Year Lost, Sensitivity Analysis, 5% Versus 40% NVP Risks, Ages 18–99, 2021–2080
| SVADs for both genders in different scenarios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario and parameter change | 5% NVP risk multiplier | 40% NVP risk multiplier | |||
| Restricted NVP Scenario* | Cumulative SVADs*** | Cumulative SVADs*** | – | ||
| 1 282 061 | 1 297 562 | – | |||
| Permissive NVP Scenario** | Averted SVADs | Relative Difference from best estimate**** | Averted SVADs | Relative Difference from best estimate**** | Relative Reduction % (5% vs. 40% risk) |
| Best estimate (initial) | 104 245 | 0.0% | 69 680 | 0.0% | −33.2 |
| 50% of switch rate, no decay | 69 061 | −33.8% | 48 414 | −30.5% | −29.9 |
| 150% of switch rate, no decay | 129 702 | 24.4% | 85 027 | 22.0% | −34.4 |
| 100% of switch rate, 10% decay | 53 104 | −49.1% | 38 630 | −44.6% | −27.3 |
| 30% smoking initiation multiplier | 109 249 | 4.8% | 76 883 | 10.3% | −29.6 |
| 90% smoking initiation multiplier | 99 423 | −4.6% | 62 739 | −10.0% | −36.9 |
| 50% NVP initiation multiplier | 104 570 | 0.3% | 73 275 | 5.2% | −29.9 |
| 100% NVP initiation multiplier | 103 932 | −0.3% | 66 197 | −5.0% | −36.3 |
| 200% NVP initiation multiplier | 102 782 | −1.4% | 53 308 | −23.5% | −48.1 |
| 50% smoking cessation multiplier | 7501 | −92.8% | −35 843 | −151.4% | −577.8 |
| 150% smoking cessation multiplier | 155 355 | 49.0% | 126 510 | 81.6% | −18.6 |
| 50% NVP cessation multiplier | 100 166 | −3.9% | 39 597 | −43.2% | −60.5 |
| 150% NVP cessation multiplier | 106 376 | 2.0% | 85 629 | 22.9% | −19.5 |
| LYLs for both genders in different scenarios | |||||
| Scenario and parameter change | 5% NVP risk multiplier | 40% NVP risk multiplier | |||
| Restricted NVP Scenario* | Total LYLs | Total LYLs | – | ||
| 11 181 138 | 11 301 585 | – | |||
| Permissive NVP Scenario** with parameter changes from baseline | Averted LYLs | Relative Difference from best estimate**** | Averted LYLs | Relative Difference from best estimate**** | Relative Change % (5% risk vs. 40% risk) |
| Best estimate (initial) | 2 054 904 | 0.0% | 1 200 952 | 0.0% | −41.6 |
| 50% of switch rate, no decay | 1 416 983 | −31.0% | 805 227 | −33.0% | −43.2 |
| 150% of switch rate, no decay | 2 507 408 | 22.0% | 1 481 418 | 23.4% | −40.9 |
| 100% of switch rate, 10% decay | 1 107 582 | −46.1% | 611 860 | −49.1% | −44.8 |
| 30% smoking initiation multiplier | 2 196 320 | 6.9% | 1 409 124 | 17.3% | −35.8 |
| 90% smoking initiation multiplier | 1 919 347 | −6.6% | 1 001 312 | −16.6% | −47.8 |
| 50% NVP initiation multiplier | 2 063 920 | 0.4% | 1 305 893 | 8.7% | −36.7 |
| 100% NVP initiation multiplier | 2 046 240 | −0.4% | 1 099 627 | −8.4% | −46.3 |
| 200% NVP initiation multiplier | 2,014 839 | −1.9% | 727,948 | −39.4% | −63.9 |
| 50% smoking cessation multiplier | 1 027 310 | −50.0% | 61 274 | −94.9% | −94.0 |
| 150% smoking cessation multiplier | 2 708 277 | 31.8% | 1 937 095 | 61.3% | −28.5 |
| 50% NVP cessation multiplier | 2 000 669 | −2.6% | 780 074 | −35.0% | −61.0 |
| 150% NVP cessation multiplier | 2 088 479 | 1.6% | 1 462 870 | 21.8% | −30.0 |
Abbreviations: NVP = nicotine vaping product, LYLs = Life years lost, SVADs = smoking and vaping attributable deaths.
*Restricted NVP Scenario refers to values under the current situation with restricted NVP use.
**Permissive NVP Scenario refers to a hypothetical future scenario with more permissive policies towards NVPs. For switching rates, the sensitivity analyses are conducted as a percent of the initial switching rates from cigarette to NVP use. For the smoking and NVP initiation and cessation rates, sensitivity analyses are conducted through constant value multipliers that are applied directly to the respective smoking initiation and cessation rates in the Restricted NVP Scenario.
***Cumulative results include the deaths and life-years lost, which are the sum of attributable deaths or life-years lost over the years at age ≥18 in 2017–2080.
****Difference between the Restricted NVP Scenario and Permissive NVP Scenario includes the percent averted smokers (measured by the relative reduction in the smoking prevalence each year) by gender, averted SVADs and LYLs for males, females, and both genders. The relative differences (%) for averted SVADs and LYLs are calculated for both genders by using the formulas:.
SVADs averted (%) = SVAD averted/SVADRestricted NVP; LYLs averted (%) = LYL averted/LYLRestricted NVP.