TABLE 1.
Estimated HIV Incidence by Country and Estimate Method, and Percent Difference Between Methods, PHIAs, 2015–2019
| n | Testing History Estimate | Biomarker Estimate | Percent Difference | |||
| HIV Incidence (95% CI) | CIR | HIV Incidence (95% CI) | CIR | |||
| Lesotho 2016 | 16,326 | 1.92 (1.74 to 2.10) | 1.2 | 1.11 (0.68 to 1.52) | 2.2 | −42% |
| Eswatini 2016 | 11,784 | 1.24 (1.00 to 1.48) | 1.5 | 1.14 (0.73 to 1.53) | 2.1 | −8% |
| Zambia 2016 | 27,069 | 0.59 (0.52 to 0.66) | 1.3 | 0.61 (0.40 to 0.81) | 2.0 | 3% |
| Zimbabwe 2015 | 25,309 | 0.55 (0.48 to 0.63) | 1.3 | 0.40 (0.24 to 0.56) | 2.3 | −27% |
| Malawi 2015 | 24,063 | 0.43 (0.38 to 0.49) | 1.3 | 0.37 (0.20 to 0.54) | 2.7 | −14% |
| Tanzania 2016 | 34,503 | 0.36 (0.32 to 0.41) | 1.3 | 0.26 (0.15 to 0.36) | 2.3 | −27% |
| Namibia 2017 | 23,334 | 0.32 (0.26 to 0.38) | 1.5 | 0.37 (0.18 to 0.55) | 3.1 | 16% |
| Uganda 2016 | 31,661 | 0.28 (0.23 to 0.32) | 1.4 | 0.41 (0.25 to 0.56) | 2.2 | 46% |
| Cameroon 2017 | 28,737 | 0.18 (0.15 to 0.22) | 1.5 | 0.24 (0.12 to 0.36) | 3.1 | 33% |
| Rwanda 2018 | 32,468 | 0.07 (0.05 to 0.09) | 1.8 | 0.08 (0.02 to 0.14) | 6.4 | 14% |
| Ethiopia 2017 | 23,385 | 0.07 (0.04 to 0.09) | 2.1 | 0.05 (0 to 0.10) | 15.8 | −29% |
| Cote d'Ivoire 2017 | 22,292 | 0.06 (0.02 to 0.09) | 4.2 | 0.03 (0 to 0.07) | 0.6 | −50% |
Incidence expressed as a percent. 95% confidence interval (CI) generated using the jackknife method. CIR, confidence interval ratio (upper/lower). Percent difference is the biomarker estimate minus testing history, divided by the testing history estimate, multiplied by 100. Negative percent difference indicates that the testing history estimate is larger than the biomarker estimate.