Table 1.

Deaths and hospital admissions in England from 8th December 2020 to 1st September 2021, as observed (top row) and from four model scenarios as described in the main text—giving the mean and 95% prediction intervals

	Deaths	Hospital Admissions
Observed	62,163	243,573
(i) Default	61,200 (59,900–62,400)	245,800 (243,500–247,900)
(ii) Prioritise youngest	84,500 (71,200–163,600)	261,400 (223,600–487,100)
(iii) 3-week interval, default efficacy	69,300 (67,000–71,100)	314,100 (302,800–329,300)
(iv) 3-week interval, lower efficacy	74,900 (70,700–79,900)	341,400 (322,400–368,600)

It should be stressed that all model results assume the same relaxation of control measures throughout 2021. All model results are from 400 samples of the posterior distribution.