Skip to main content
. 2023 Feb 10;11(5):439–452. doi: 10.1016/S2213-2600(23)00015-2

Table 3.

Vaccine effectiveness for mRNA or adenovirus primary COVID-19 vaccine series against infections, hospitalisations, and mortality

Baseline, days
 Follow-up, days
 I2 σ
0–13 14–42 112–139 140–167 168–195 196–223 224–251 252–279 280–307
Any mRNA vaccine
Any variant
Documented infections 71% (95% CI 57 to 80; 95% PI −11 to 92) 87%* (95% CI 84 to 90; 95% PI 53 to 97) 66%† (95% CI 57 to 74; 95% PI −20 to 91) 57%†* (95% CI 47 to 66; 95% PI −37 to 89) 52%†* (95% CI 39 to 63; 95% PI −44 to 87) 52%†* (95% CI 36 to 65; 95% PI −45 to 87) 48%†* (95% CI 31 to 62; 95% PI −49 to 86) 48%†* (95% CI 24 to 64; 95% PI −50 to 87) 51%† (95% CI 22 to 69; 95% PI −48 to 88) 32, 68 0·37, 0·54
κ 6 (8) 28 (59) 14 (28) 24 (48) 13 (26) 11 (13) 9 (14) 5 (7) 4 (5) .. ..
Hospitalisations .. 93% (95% CI 89 to 95; 95% PI 53 to 99) 89%† (95% CI 83 to 93; 95% PI 31 to 98) 87%† (95% CI 80 to 91; 95% PI 14 to 98) 84%† (95% CI 73 to 90; 95% PI −5 to 98) 82%† (95% CI 69 to 90; 95% PI −15 to 97) 80%† (95% CI 64 to 88; 95% PI −27 to 97) .. .. 26, 73 0·47, 0·78
κ .. 18 (33) 8 (20) 13 (20) 6 (9) 5 (7) 6 (7) .. .. .. ..
Mortality .. 94% (95% CI (88 to 97; 95% PI 55 to 99) .. 87%† (95% CI 73 to 94; 95% PI −2 to 98) .. .. .. .. .. 25, 71 0·49, 0·81
κ .. 8 (15) .. 6 (8) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Omicron
Documented infections .. 67% (95% CI 53 to 77; 95% PI 0 to 89) .. 32%† (95% CI 2 to 53; 95% PI −51 to 78) .. .. .. .. .. 9, 91 0·15, 0·49
κ .. 8 (12) .. 4 (6) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hospitalisations .. 72% (95% CI 58 to 81; 95% PI 32 to 88) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 24, 72 0·17, 0·31
κ .. 6 (6) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Delta
Documented infections .. 91% (95% CI 88 to 93; 95% PI 78 to 96) 73%† (95% CI 63 to 80; 95% PI 33 to 89) 72%† (95% CI 63 to 79; 95% PI 33 to 88) 69%† (95% CI 58 to 77; 95% PI 25 to 87) .. .. .. .. 20, 80 0·18, 0·37
κ .. 7 (12) 4 (6) 7 (11) 4 (8) .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hospitalisations .. 96% (95% CI 90 to 98; 95% PI 63 to 100) .. 91% (95% CI 77 to 96; 95% PI 17 to 99) .. .. .. .. .. 48, 51 0·67, 0·69
κ .. 5 (7) .. 4 (5) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Any adenovirus vaccine
Any variant
Documented infections .. 69% (95% CI 60 to 75; 95% PI 18 to 88) 56%† (95% CI 42 to 66; 95% PI −15 to 83) 50%† (95% CI 37 to 61; 95% PI −24 to 81) 47%† (95% CI 31 to 59; 95% PI −30 to 80) .. .. .. .. 30, 69 0·26, 0·39
κ .. 14 (23) 7 (12) 12 (20) 7 (13) .. .. .. .. .. ..
Hospitalisations .. 90% (95% CI 83 to 94; 95% PI 46 to 98) 89% (95% CI 81 to 94; 95% PI 42 to 98) 85% (95% CI 74 to 92; 95% PI 18 to 97) .. .. .. .. .. 32, 66 0·46, 0·66
κ .. 9 (15) 5 (11) 7 (11) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Mortality .. 84% (95% CI 72 to 91; 95% PI 28 to 96) .. 75% (95% CI 53 to 86; 95% PI −14 to 94) .. .. .. .. .. 67, 25 0·57, 0·35
κ .. 7 (10) .. 5 (6) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Delta
Documented infections .. 75% (95% CI 67 to 81; 95% PI 51 to 87) .. 58%† (95% CI 46 to 68; 95% PI 19 to 78) .. .. .. .. .. 23, 76 0·14, 0·25
κ .. 5 (8) .. 5 (8) .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

I2 is Higgin's and Thompson's I2 presented at the within-study and between-study levels. σ is the estimate of τ, the SD of effect sizes in the population, presented at the within-study and between-study levels. κ=number of studies pooled (number of cohorts or observations pooled). PI=prediction interval.

*

Vaccine effectiveness at this follow-up timepoint is statistically different from the vaccine effectiveness observed at baseline 1 (0–13 days).

†

Vaccine effectiveness at this follow-up timepoint is statistically different from the vaccine effectiveness observed at baseline 2 (14–42 days).