Table 1.
Levels and data sources | Real time | 1-week forecast | 2-week forecast | 3-week forecast | |||||
|
PCC | RMSE | PCC | RMSE | PCC | RMSE | PCC | RMSE | |
National | |||||||||
|
AR(52)c | 0.946 d | 16.16 | 0.910 | 22.69 | 0.898 | 26.95 | 0.884 | 30.69 |
|
0.830 | 42.75 | 0.803 | 44.99 | 0.801 | 41.27 | 0.770 | 38.96 | |
|
EHRe | 0.477 | 48.35 | 0.512 | 45.59 | 0.489 | 47.37 | 0.519 | 44.65 |
|
AR(52) and Google | 0.941 | 18.10 | 0.896 | 24.17 | 0.871 | 26.98 | 0.847 | 28.24 |
|
AR(52) and EHR | 0.932 | 16.41 | 0.880 | 21.58 | 0.820 | 26.15 | 0.823 | 25.93 |
|
Google and EHR | 0.836 | 36.09 | 0.846 | 34.48 | 0.779 | 34.23 | 0.795 | 32.32 |
|
AR(52), Google, and EHR | 0.936 | 21.26 | 0.903 | 20.94 | 0.856 | 24.16 | 0.845 | 25.33 |
Regional | |||||||||
|
AR(52) | 0.725 | 40.75 | 0.705 | 44.18 | 0.670 | 47.65 | 0.681 | 49.12 |
|
0.652 | 65.84 | 0.603 | 64.79 | 0.594 | 60.33 | 0.596 | 61.67 | |
|
EHR | 0.462 | 59.83 | 0.538 | 55.62 | 0.546 | 55.87 | 0.582 | 52.90 |
|
AR(52) and Google | 0.738 | 42.07 | 0.665 | 46.44 | 0.616 | 47.82 | 0.619 | 47.74 |
|
AR(52) and EHR | 0.697 | 40.99 | 0.685 | 42.38 | 0.637 | 46.48 | 0.634 | 46.31 |
|
Google and EHR | 0.608 | 60.70 | 0.610 | 60.97 | 0.615 | 57.50 | 0.628 | 59.72 |
|
AR(52), Google, and EHR | 0.724 | 42.12 | 0.689 | 45.24 | 0.646 | 47.37 | 0.620 | 52.19 |
aPCC: Pearson correlation coefficient.
bRMSE: root mean squared error.
cAR(52): autoregressive model of order 52.
dItalicization highlights the 2 highest correlations and lowest errors obtained with the models for real time and 1-week, 2-week, and 3-week forecasts.
eEHR: electronic health record.