Table 1. List of experiments.
BSC, basal sliding coefficient; OMF, ocean melt factor; BC, bias-corrected; MICI, marine ice cliff instability.
| # | Experiment (suite) name | Climate forcing | Init. cond. | Parameters (TPD/OMF/BSC) | Length (years) | Description/aim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | OBS_INV | PD observation* | PD† | −1.0/5.0/vary | 100,000 | Adjusting ISM BSC to simulate an AIS close to present-day under observed climate. |
| 1 | OBS_CTL | PD observation | PD | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 10,000 | ISM control run under observed climate for validating the ISM’s performance. |
| 2 | CMIP6_RAW_PI_CTL | CMIP6 raw PI‡ | PD | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 10,000 (×36) | Assessing the effect of raw CMIP6 climate on simulated AIS equilibrium state. |
| 3 | CMIP6_BC_PI_CTL | CMIP6 BC PI | PD | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 15,000 (×36) | Assessing the spread in simulated AIS due to differences in BC CMIP6 preindustrial climates. |
| 4 | CMIP6_BC_1850-2100 | CMIP6 BC 1850–2100§ | Exp 3 | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 250 (× 36) | Quantifying the spread in simulated AIS due to differences in BC CMIP6 1850–2100 climates. |
| 5 | CMIP6_BC_1850-2100_NO_MICI | CMIP6 BC 1850–2100 | Exp 3 | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0/MICI off | 250 (×36) | Same as Exp 4 but with MICI-related processes turned off for evaluating the effect of MICI. |
| 6 | CMIP6_BC_MMM | CMIP6 BC MMM 1850–2100 | Exp 3 | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 250 | Same as Exp 4 but a single run forced by CMIP6 multimodel mean climate. |
| 7 | CMIP6_BC_MMM+OBS | CMIP6 BC MMM 1850–2100, 1980–2019 OBS | Exp 3 | −1.0/5.0/Exp 0 | 250 | Evaluating the effects of multidecadal trends in observed Antarctic climate on the AIS. |
| 8 | CMIP6_RAW_PD_TPD | CMIP6 raw PD | PD | Vary/5.0/Exp 0 | 1 (× 36) | Tuning TPD for each CMIP6 model to get the observed rates of surface melt under modeled PD climate. |
| 9 | CMIP6_RAW_PD_OMF | CMIP6 raw PD | PD | 0.0/vary/Exp 0 | 1 (×36) | Tuning OMF for each CMIP6 model to get the observed sub-ice melt under modeled PD climate. |
| 10 | CMIP6_RAW_PI_INV | CMIP6 raw PI | PD | Exp 8/Exp 9/vary | 80,000 (×36) | Tuning BSC for each CMIP6 model to simulate a realistic AIS under preindustrial climate. |
| 11 | CMIP6_RAW_PI_CTL2 | CMIP6 raw PI | PD | Exp 8/Exp 9/Exp 10 | 250 (× 36) | Quantifying drifts in the AIS under CMIP6 preindustrial climates. |
| 12 | CMIP6_RAW_1850-2100 | CMIP6 raw 1850–2100 | PD | Exp 8/Exp 9/Exp 10 | 250 (×36) | Same as Exp 4 but forced with raw CMIP6 climate and the ISM tuned separately for each CMIP6 model. |
*PD observation: Present-day (PD) climatological mean (averaged over 1981–2010), including monthly surface air temperature and precipitation from ERA5 and annual 400-m ocean temperature from World Ocean Atlas 2018 (WOA18).
†PD: PD observed state of the AIS specified in Bedmap2.
‡PI: Preindustrial climate. However, because not all CMIP6 models used in this study have a PI control run, climate fields averaged over the period 1850–1869 of historical runs are used here as approximately preindustrial.
§1850–2100: Historical (1850–2014) and SSP5-8.5 (2015–2100) scenarios are combined to provide climate forcings for each year over the period 1850–2100.