Table 7.
CS-ARDL regressions
| Financing category: | Deficit | Tax and non-tax revenue | Deficit and tax revenue | Tax revenue | Non-tax revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Short-run coefficients | |||||
| PGE / GDP | –0.0292 | –0.2633 | –0.6151 | –0.5729 | 0.1917 |
| (1.5802) | (0.7765) | (2.5358) | (1.6147) | (3.6432) | |
| UGE / GDP | –2.2379 | –2.8538* | –3.3884 | –2.7796* | -2.4015 |
| (3.8165) | (1.5057) | (5.4492) | (1.7082) | (4.8032) | |
| GDP | 0.7930 | 1.1554 | 0.8091 | 0.7832 | 0.7332 |
| (1.0117) | (9.5032) | (6.5905) | (1.1861) | (1.2535) | |
| INTEREST | –0.0092 | –0.0091 | –0.0089 | –0.0088 | –0.0093 |
| (0.0236) | (0.1177) | (0.0951) | (0.0328) | (0.0327) | |
| TAX REVENUE | –0.5224 | –0.3594 | |||
| (1.4106) | (3.9283) | ||||
| NON-TAX REVENUE | –0.1501 | 0.6755 | 0.3873 | ||
| (2.9201) | (3.4272) | (3.4604) | |||
| DEFICIT | –0.5074 | 0.5440 | 0.1710 | ||
| (0.6804) | (1.1781) | (2.7709) | |||
| Long-run coefficients | |||||
| PGE / GDP | –0.0525* | –0.4558 | –1.0300* | –1.0281 | 0.3442 |
| (0.0332) | (0.7765) | (0.6358) | (1.6147) | (3.6432) | |
| UGE / GDP | –6.0148** | –5.0156* | –5.4059* | –5.3197* | –4.9656* |
| (3.0211) | (3.4080) | (3.4352) | (3.2009) | (3.0688) | |
| GDP | 0.8335 | 1.5419 | 1.0330 | 0.8283 | 0.7638 |
| (1.0117) | (9.5032) | (6.5905) | (1.1861) | (1.2535) | |
| INTEREST | –0.0096* | –0.0121* | –0.0113* | –0.0094* | –0.0096* |
| (0.0060) | (0.0077) | (0.0061) | (0.0058) | (0.0053) | |
| TAX REVENUE | –0.9384 | –0.6452 | |||
| (1.4106) | (3.9283) | ||||
| NON-TAX REVENUE | –0.2697 | 1.1312 | 0.6951 | ||
| (2.9201) | (3.4272) | (3.4604) | |||
| DEFICIT | –0.8784 | 0.9764 | 0.3070 | ||
| (0.6804) | (1.1781) | (2.7709) | |||
| ECT(t-1) | –0.5567* | –0.5776*** | –0.5971** | –0.5572* | –0.5570** |
| (0.3258) | (0.1612) | (0.2663) | (0.3420) | (0.2565) | |
| N*T | 428 | 445 | 445 | 428 | 428 |
| Groups | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 21 |
| RMSE | 0.0402 | 0.0443 | 0.0442 | 0.0402 | 0.0402 |
| CD p-value | 0.0086 | 0.0550 | 0.0503 | 0.0088 | 0.0087 |
| Hausman p-value | 0.108 | 0.471 | 0.166 | 0.238 | 0.599 |
Notes: PMG estimates. Dependent variable: Real private investments per capita (logarithm). Linear country-specific trends are included in the models but not reported. The standard errors (reported in square brackets) are calculated through the delta method. The p-values of both cross-sectional dependence and Hausman tests are reported. The asterisks ***, **, * denote significance at 1%, 5%, 10%, respectively. The optimal lag length is selected according to the value that minimises AIC