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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2023 Feb 17.
Published in final edited form as: Health Aff (Millwood). 2021 Aug 18;40(9):1465–1472. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.2021.00619

EXHIBIT 3. Estimated COVID-19 deaths averted through vaccination among US adults, by week, 2021.

EXHIBIT 3

SOURCE Authors’ analysis of state-level vaccine data from the Bloomberg Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker and COVID-19 mortality data from the New York Times Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States database, December 21, 2020–May 9, 2021. NOTES Averted deaths are the difference between predicted values of deaths at prevailing levels of vaccinations and predicted values of deaths if no vaccinations had occurred during the study period. As described in the Methods section, the models use state fixed effects, week fixed effects, and four-week lags of the vaccination doses per 100 adults (population ages sixteen and older). A similar figure containing analogous results for confirmed cases is in appendix exhibit 4 (see note 30 in text).