Table 7.
Calibration Performance of the CASPER Model
| Score | Overall Population | Triple Therapy Group | Dual Bronchodilator Therapy Group | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted Survival | Observed Survival | Predicted Survival | Observed Survival | Predicted Survival | Observed Survival | |
| Inhaled corticosteroid withdrawal dataset | ||||||
| 180 days | ||||||
| <4 | 0.686 | 0.684 (0.635–0.736) | 0.679 | 0.692 (0.632–0.757) | 0.692 | 0.669 (0.587–0.763) |
| ≥4 and <5 | 0.612 | 0.608 (0.563–0.655) | 0.613 | 0.617 (0.569–0.670) | 0.609 | 0.563 (0.462–0.686) |
| ≥5 and <6 | 0.555 | 0.534 (0.487–0.585) | 0.561 | 0.527 (0.470–0.590) | 0.546 | 0.549 (0.469–0.642) |
| ≥6 and <7 | 0.509 | 0.531 (0.485–0.581) | 0.520 | 0.555 (0.502–0.614) | 0.491 | 0.463 (0.378–0.567) |
| ≥7 and <8 | 0.439 | 0.427 (0.376–0.483) | 0.452 | 0.423 (0.362–0.494) | 0.427 | 0.434 (0.353–0.535) |
| ≥8 | 0.302 | 0.329 (0.283–0.382) | 0.345 | 0.353 (0.278–0.447) | 0.277 | 0.314 (0.259–0.382) |
| 360 days | ||||||
| <4 | 0.550 | 0.548 (0.496–0.606) | 0.527 | 0.533 (0.469–0.605) | 0.583 | 0.576 (0.490–0.676) |
| ≥4 and <5 | 0.459 | 0.448 (0.403–0.498) | 0.445 | 0.448 (0.399–0.504) | 0.484 | 0.448 (0.347–0.577) |
| ≥5 and <6 | 0.393 | 0.373 (0.328–0.424) | 0.384 | 0.356 (0.303–0.419) | 0.412 | 0.409 (0.331–0.505) |
| ≥6 and <7 | 0.342 | 0.353 (0.309–0.403) | 0.339 | 0.353 (0.303–0.413) | 0.353 | 0.353 (0.272–0.457) |
| ≥7 and <8 | 0.271 | 0.273 (0.229–0.327) | 0.269 | 0.253 (0.201–0.320) | 0.288 | 0.312 (0.237–0.411) |
| ≥8 | 0.154 | 0.177 (0.141–0.224) | 0.173 | 0.205 (0.144–0.292) | 0.159 | 0.162 (0.119–0.219) |
| Inhaled corticosteroid addition dataset | ||||||
| 180 days | ||||||
| <4 | 0.754 | 0.793 (0.722–0.870) | 0.769 | 0.816 (0.740–0.899) | 0.761 | 0.708 (0.548–0.916) |
| ≥4 and <5 | 0.698 | 0.682 (0.600–0.777) | 0.704 | 0.658 (0.564–0.767) | 0.702 | 0.773 (0.616–0.969) |
| ≥5 and <6 | 0.656 | 0.637 (0.547–0.741) | 0.655 | 0.591 (0.483–0.722) | 0.659 | 0.744 (0.605–0.916) |
| ≥6 and <7 | 0.618 | 0.643 (0.544–0.761) | 0.608 | 0.686 (0.572–0.821) | 0.619 | 0.544 (0.370–0.800) |
| ≥7 and <8 | 0.563 | 0.575 (0.466–0.711) | 0.537 | 0.519 (0.373–0.720) | 0.569 | 0.638 (0.487–0.835) |
| ≥8 | 0.442 | 0.390 (0.281–0.541) | 0.420 | 0.440 (0.244–0.795) | 0.447 | 0.376 (0.255–0.554) |
| 360 days | ||||||
| <4 | 0.591 | 0.546 (0.462–0.645) | 0.588 | 0.558 (0.465–0.671) | 0.647 | 0.500 (0.335–0.746) |
| ≥4 and <5 | 0.511 | 0.505 (0.418–0.611) | 0.490 | 0.496 (0.398–0.617) | 0.568 | 0.545 (0.372–0.799) |
| ≥5 and <6 | 0.456 | 0.517 (0.425–0.629) | 0.423 | 0.435 (0.330–0.574) | 0.513 | 0.709 (0.564–0.891) |
| ≥6 and <7 | 0.407 | 0.432 (0.332–0.563) | 0.363 | 0.432 (0.316–0.590) | 0.464 | 0.440 (0.270–0.715) |
| ≥7 and <8 | 0.342 | 0.367 (0.265–0.508) | 0.282 | 0.275 (0.158–0.479) | 0.406 | 0.470 (0.321–0.687) |
| ≥8 | 0.223 | 0.176 (0.097–0.318) | 0.174 | 0.073 (0.011–0.483) | 0.280 | 0.214 (0.117–0.393) |
Notes: The predicted versus observed survival risk of the CASPER model at 180 and 360 days are presented. The predicted survival risk were calculated from the score derived from the CASPER model, and the observed survival risk were calculated using Kaplan–Meier estimation.