Table 20.
Scenario design of variables under different control efforts during the 14th Five-year Plan period
| Key variables | Code | Annual planning value | Scenario setting basis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 (%) | 2021 (%) | 2022 (%) | 2023 (%) | 2024 (%) | |||
| Growth rate of social fixed asset investment | L | 17.3 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 18.1 | The GDP growth rate with the strongest correlation(98.39% correlation) with this index is selected as the indirect regulation factor, because there is no specific requirement for the amount of social fixed assets investment. According to the 14th Five-year Plan for national economic and social development of Jining and the outline of long-term goals for 2035 (2021), the average growth rate of Jining's GDP in the next five years is required to be 6%. In order to achieve the goal, the growth rate of social fixed assets investment in the low scheme is set at 17.3%~ 18.1%, After expert’s consultations, the medium and high schemes are 17.5–18.3% and 17.7–18.5%, respectively |
| M | 17.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 18.1 | 18.3 | ||
| H | 17.7 | 17.9 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 18.5 | ||
| Reduction rate of solid waste emergy | L | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | According to the historical data from 2001 to 2020, especially with reference to the relevant plans and measures of Jining industrial policies from 2011 to 2020, Origin is used to predict the reduction rate of solid waste emergy during 14th Five-year Plan, and the minimum average deceleration in the next five years is determined to be 3.6–4.4%. After consulting relevant experts, the medium and high schemes are set at 3.8–4.6% and 4.0–4.8%, respectively |
| M | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | ||
| H | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | ||
| Growth rate of grain emergy | L | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | According to the 14th Five-year Plan for national economic and social development of Jining and the outline of long-term goals for 2035, the minimum comprehensive grain production capacity of Jining in 2025 is required to be 480,000 kg, which is consistent with that in 2020. Based on this data and expert’s consultations, the low, medium and high schemes in the next five years are set to be 0.2–1.0%, 1.0–1.8% and 1.8–2.6%, respectively |
| M | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||
| H | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | ||
| Growth rate of raw coal emergy | L | − 3.2 | − 3.4 | − 3.6 | − 3.8 | − 4.0% | According to the 14th Five-year Plan for Jining energy development (2022) and the 14th Five-year Plan for Shandong energy development (2021), coal consumption is required to be reduced by 10% in the next five years. Based on this data and expert’s consultations, the low, medium and high schemes in the next five years are set to − 4.0 to − 3.2%, − 3.2 to − 2.4%, − 2.4 to − 1.6%, respectively |
| M | − 2.4 | − 2.6 | − 2.8 | − 3.0 | − 3.2 | ||
| H | − 1.6 | − 1.8 | − 2.0 | − 2.2 | − 2.4 | ||