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. 2023 Jan 18;29(2):348–357. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02219-5

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© The Author(s) 2023, corrected publication 2023

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Fig. 4 — a, Cumulative IAR by 31 July 2022. b, Cumulative population immunity from infection and vaccination, assuming no waning of immunity from natural infection, by 31 July 2022. c,d, Ascertainment rate based on all cumulative confirmed cases (c) or cumulative RT–PCR-confirmed cases only (d). All analyses were stratified by assumptions on delay to VE taking effect and age group. The dots indicate posterior medians and the lines indicate 95% credible intervals based on the fitted model. *Cumulative IAR, population immunity and ascertainment rate estimates among those aged 12–19 or 60 and above were less accurate because no subjects were between 12 and 17 years old, and few were above 65 years old.