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. 2023 Jan 18;29(2):348–357. doi: 10.1038/s41591-023-02219-5

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© The Author(s) 2023, corrected publication 2023

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Fig. 5 — a, IAR over time. b–d, Population immunity over time from infection and vaccination, assuming no waning of immunity from natural infection (b), immunity from infection wanes by 15% after 365 days (c) and immunity from infection wanes by 25% after 100 days (d). All analyses were stratified by assumptions on delay to VE taking effect. The lines indicate posterior medians and shaded bars indicate 95% credible intervals based on the fitted model.