Table 5.
Scenarios assessing the effects and interactions of surveillance testing and educational outreach to families.
| Scenario Description | Surveillance testing frequency | Probability of outreach receptiveness | Improvements in attestation accuracy and exogenous risk from COVID safety education | % of students infected since baseline (cumulative)* | % of students infected from school (cumulative)* | # School days quarantined per student (cumulative)* | % of schools with no on-campus transmissions so far** | % of schools with no detected infection clusters so far** |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Default parameter values | 25% every Monday | 50% | 10% | 4.50 (2.62, 6.67) | 0.05 (0.00, 0.24) | 1.21 (0.91, 1.53) | 80.2% (79.4, 81.0) | 99.0% (98.7, 99.1) |
| No testing or education | None | 0% | 50% | 4.33 (2.62, 6.43) | 0.05 (0.00, 0.48) | 1.14 (0.85, 1.45) | 80.4% (79.6, 81.2) | 99.5% (99.3, 99.6) |
| Education only | None | 100% | 50% | 4.10 (2.38, 6.19) | 0.04 (0.00, 0.24) | 1.08 (0.80, 1.38) | 83.8% (83.1, 84.5) | 99.7% (99.5, 99.8) |
| Testing only | 100% every Monday | 0% | 50% | 4.33 (2.38, 6.43) | 0.04 (0.00, 0.24) | 1.24 (0.94, 1.60) | 84.9% (84.2, 85.6) | 95.7% (95.3, 96.1) |
| Testing + education | 100% every Monday | 100% | 50% | 4.07 (2.38, 6.19) | 0.03 (0.00, 0.24) | 1.17 (0.89, 1.52) | 88.3% (87.6, 88.9) | 96.4% (96.0, 96.8) |
*
2.5 and 97.5% percentiles (across the 10,000 simulated schools) are provided for student-level outcomes.
**
95% exact binomial confidence intervals are provided for school-level outcomes.