Table 1. Reported COVID-19 deaths by US jurisdiction, Compared with Excess Deaths from All-Causes and Respiratory Diseases: March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022.
| Jurisdiction | Estimated excess all-cause deaths per 100,000, (95% prediction interval) | No. estimated excess all-cause deaths (95% prediction interval) | No. estimated excess respiratory deaths (95% prediction interval) | No. reported COVID-19 deaths* | Ratio of COVID-19 deaths to all-cause excess deaths | Ratio of COVID-19 deaths to respiratory excess deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 318 (272–364) | 1,065,200 (909,800–1,218,000) | 757,600 (725,200–788,100) | 848,886 | 0.80 | 1.12 |
| Alabama | 569 (406–727) | 26,900 (19,200–34,400) | 15,000 (13,000–16,800) | 16,425 | 0.61 | 1.09 |
| Arizona | 414 (328–498) | 35,000 (27,700–42,100) | 22,900 (21,000–24,600) | 23,381 | 0.67 | 1.02 |
| Arkansas | 450 (283–612) | 13,800 (8700–18,700) | NA | 9363 | 0.68 | NA |
| California | 286 (234–336) | 120,500 (98,700–141,800) | 75,500 (69,800–80,700) | 81,910 | 0.68 | 1.08 |
| Colorado | 284 (173–393) | 15,000 (9100–20,800) | NA | 11,280 | 0.75 | NA |
| Connecticut | 238 (98–374) | 8700 (3600–13,700) | NA | 9451 | 1.08 | NA |
| Florida | 342 (279–404) | 80,200 (65,400–94,600) | 54,900 (51,400–58,200) | 60,704 | 0.76 | 1.11 |
| Georgia | 366 (287–443) | 39,600 (31,100–48,000) | 25,400 (23,100–27,600) | 27,763 | 0.70 | 1.09 |
| Illinois | 269 (198–339) | 35,600 (26,200–44,800) | 25,300 (22,800–27,600) | 28,509 | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| Indiana | 325 (213–436) | 21,600 (14,100–28,900) | 16,400 (14,100–18,500) | 19,830 | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Iowa | 195 (26–361) | 5900 (800–10,900) | NA | 8295 | 1.41 | NA |
| Kansas | 241 (75–401) | 7000 (2200–11,600) | NA | 7316 | 1.05 | NA |
| Kentucky | 421 (278–560) | 18,600 (12,300–24,800) | NA | 13,313 | 0.71 | NA |
| Louisiana | 451 (317–581) | 21,300 (15,000–27,400) | NA | 13,984 | 0.66 | NA |
| Maryland | 262 (163–360) | 17,000 (10,600–23,400) | NA | 12,832 | 0.75 | NA |
| Massachusetts | 196 (95–297) | 13,500 (6500–20,300) | NA | 15,799 | 1.17 | NA |
| Michigan | 251 (165–336) | 26,800 (17,600–35,900) | 22,200 (19,600–24,700) | 27,287 | 1.02 | 1.23 |
| Minnesota | 149 (42–253) | 8800 (2500–14,900) | NA | 11,015 | 1.25 | NA |
| Mississippi | 477 (305–645) | 14,500 (9300–19,600) | NA | 11,069 | 0.76 | NA |
| Missouri | 309 (190–426) | 19,200 (11,800–26,400) | 15,400 (13,300–17,200) | 17,005 | 0.89 | 1.11 |
| Nevada | 348 (211–479) | 12,000 (7300–16,500) | NA | 9172 | 0.76 | NA |
| New Jersey | 320 (238–401) | 30,300 (22,500–38,000) | 25,500 (23,600–27,300) | 27,770 | 0.92 | 1.09 |
| New York | 353 (287–416) | 69,000 (56,300–81,500) | 56,700 (48,400–63,600) | 62,339 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| Ohio | 400 (296–502) | 46,600 (34,500–58,500) | 30,900 (27,800–33,700) | 35,633 | 0.77 | 1.15 |
| Oklahoma | 416 (263–566) | 15,600 (9800–21,100) | NA | 13,098 | 0.84 | NA |
| Oregon | 209 (76–338) | 8900 (3200–14,400) | NA | 5801 | 0.65 | NA |
| Pennsylvania | 347 (259–434) | 44,400 (33,100–55,500) | 34,500 (31,800–37,000) | 38,954 | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| South Carolina | 437 (301–570) | 21,100 (14,500–27,500) | NA | 15,202 | 0.72 | NA |
| Tennessee | 411 (292–526) | 27,800 (19,800–35,700) | 20,200 (18,000–22,200) | 21,580 | 0.78 | 1.07 |
| Texas | 364 (311–417) | 104,300 (89,000–119,400) | 76,000 (72,200–79,500) | 82,328 | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| Virginia | 236 (149–320) | 21,000 (13,300–28,500) | 12,800 (10,700–14,800) | 15,824 | 0.75 | 1.22 |
| Washington | 172 (77–264) | 12,800 (5700–19,600) | NA | 9868 | 0.77 | NA |
| Wisconsin | 219 (−23–43) | 13,100 (−1400–26,600) | NA | 12,362 | 0.94 | NA |
*
As reported by National Center for Health Statistics. States are ordered alphabetically. No. of reported COVID –19 deaths (any death with COVID-19 as underlying cause) until December 31, 2021 as available on June 14, 2022, were obtained from the NCHS website (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022d).