Table 2. Estimation of the direct impacts of COVID-19 on non-respiratory conditions.

Cause of Death	No. estimated excess deaths (95% prediction interval)	% of excess deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 (95% prediction interval)*
All-cause	1,065,200 (909,800–121,8000)	84% (65, 94)
Alzheimer’s	25,300 (12,600–37,600)	70% (45, 89)
Diabetes	24,700 (15,900–33,300)	70% (45, 93)
Heart diseases	51,300 (7,400–94,300)	73% (32, 94)
Cerebrovascular diseases	16,600 (5,300–27,800)	26% (−17, 62)
External causes	102,800 (81,400–123,700)	−48% (−64, −23)†
Cancer	4,300 (−18,100–26,500)	N/A‡

^* Regression estimates of the direct impact of COVID-19 on cause-specific excess mortality, where weekly cause-specific excess mortality is regressed against COVID-19 intensity, strength of interventions, and ICU occupancy, using gam models. Estimates are based on comparison of predictions from the full model with counterfactual predictions where the COVID-19 term is set to zero.

^†COVID-19 intensity is significant but negatively associated with excess mortality from external causes, hence the estimated attributable fraction is negative.

^‡COVID-19 intensity is not retained in the cancer model.