Table 4. Age specific mortality patterns from March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2021: excess all-cause deaths, official COVID-19 deaths, and direct contribution of COVID-19 to mortality estimated by statistical model.

Age	No. estimated excess all-cause deaths (95% prediction interval)	Estimated excess all-cause deaths per 100,000 (95% prediction interval)	Official statistics on the no. reported COVID-19 deaths*	Percent of excess deaths coded as COVID-19 in official statistics (%)†	Model estimate of % of excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19‡
Under 25 years	22,400 (15,400–29,000)	21.4 (14.7–27.7)	2853	0.13 (0.1–0.19)	−0.45 (−0.63, 0.07)
25–44 years	112,200 (100,200–123,100)	125 (112–138)	34,048	0.30 (0.28–0.34)	0.02 (−0.09, 0.11)
45–64 years	286,500 (255,100–315,600)	342 (304–376)	183,284	0.64 (0.58–0.72)	0.43 (0.35, 0.49)
65–74 years	254,900 (222,600–285,400)	771 (673–863)	194,436	0.76 (0.68–0.87)	0.67 (0.59, 0.76)
75–84 years	189,200 (149,400–228,400)	1137 (898–1373)	217,479	1.15 (0.95–1.46)	1.02 (0.88, 1.32)
85 years and over	182,200 (120,400–242,500)	2708 (1789–3605)	218,464	1.20 (0.9–1.82)	1.20 (1.02, 1.41)

^*Death certificates have multiple causes of death listed; here COVID-19 can be listed anywhere on the death certificate. These are deaths reported between March 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022, as available on June 14, 2022.

^†Estimated as the proportion of excess all-cause deaths captured by official COVID-19 statistics (column 4 divided by column 2).

^‡Proportion of all-cause excess mortality that is attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection (direct pandemic impact) based on GAM models, where all-cause excess mortality is regressed against COVID-19 intensity, strength of interventions, and ICU occupancy each week. Estimates are based on comparison of predictions from the full model with counterfactual predictions where the COVID-19 term is set to zero.