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. 2023 Feb 22;14:858. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36495-z

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© The Author(s) 2023

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — a The daily number of app-reported cases which followed an exposure notification, and rolling 7-day average. b The daily and rolling 7-day average percentage of app-reported cases which followed an exposure notification. c The mean estimated proportion of notified individuals who enter a positive test result into the app shortly after exposure notification (TPAEN). Shading around the line indicates the 95% credible interval. d The probability of testing positive after notification relative to a random member of the 16+ population, shown on a logarithmic scale. The central estimate and shading around the line correspond to the uncertainty reported for the ONS infection survey (official estimate and 95% credible interval respectively). The horizontal dotted line indicates a value of 1, i.e., equal probability. e Daily new app-reported cases per 100,000 active users by notification status. f Daily maximum likelihood estimates of the odds for testing positive in recently notified app users relative to not-recently-notified app users. Shading indicates 95% confidence intervals. The horizontal dotted line indicates a value of 1, i.e., equal probability.