Table 2.

Growth rate (%) of the overall score of ICRG internal conflict (2020–21) and (log) cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people by the end of 2021.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
	Dependent variable: Conflict growth (relative)
COVID_death	1.057**	0.995*	1.705***	1.765***	1.989**	2.013***	3.848***	2.213***
	(2.15)	(1.82)	(3.16)	(2.71)	(2.59)	(2.77)	(3.14)	(3.30)
Gov_Support		0.036	0.615	0.515	0.619	0.337	0.836	0.648*
		(0.44)	(1.25)	(1.23)	(1.59)	(0.89)	(1.58)	(1.79)
COVID_death × Gov_support			−0.086	−0.078	−0.090*	−0.051	−0.124*	−0.092*
			(-1.27)	(-1.36)	(-1.73)	(-0.99)	(-1.74)	(-1.85)
Inflation					0.171***	−0.026	−0.179	0.161***
					(3.83)	(-0.09)	(-0.57)	(4.80)
HCI					−9.439	−5.345	31.071
					(-0.71)	(-0.35)	(1.37)
Oil_rent					−0.019	−0.936***	−0.756**
					(-0.19)	(-3.35)	(-2.46)
Urbanization					0.029	0.080	0.119
					(0.50)	(1.10)	(1.38)
Log of GDP per capita					−2.568	−0.264	−6.436	−2.146*
					(-1.22)	(-0.09)	(-1.67)	(-1.77)
Level of conflict 2020					−1.747**	−1.295	−1.844*	−1.802**
					(-2.11)	(-1.41)	(-1.71)	(-2.31)
Governance					1.298	−0.556	−2.618
					(0.68)	(-0.25)	(-0.91)
Stringency index					0.066	0.096	0.140
					(0.83)	(1.01)	(1.25)
Gini index						−0.149	−0.052
						(-0.97)	(-0.31)
Ethnic fractionalization						1.787	−1.604
						(0.40)	(-0.35)
Trust in government							0.078
							(1.04)
Trust in science							0.086
							(0.52)
Africa				−6.059	−7.946	−3.529	2.681	−7.370
				(-1.04)	(-1.48)	(-0.75)	(0.48)	(-1.42)
Asia				−8.850	−7.166	−3.166	−4.013	−7.503
				(-1.55)	(-1.45)	(-1.14)	(-0.93)	(-1.56)
Europe				−5.637	−4.163	−6.185**	−6.484	−5.513
				(-0.99)	(-0.81)	(-2.10)	(-1.38)	(-1.13)
North America				−7.688	−9.316*	−11.641***	−11.888***	−9.269*
				(-1.26)	(-1.70)	(-3.23)	(-2.75)	(-1.74)
South America				−7.049	−7.659	−6.126	−8.290	−7.258
				(-1.09)	(-1.28)	(-1.28)	(-1.49)	(-1.26)
Constant	−5.289*	−5.266*	−9.725***	−2.949	26.180	0.594	11.346	21.071
	(-1.67)	(-1.68)	(-2.82)	(-0.40)	(1.47)	(0.02)	(0.29)	(1.51)
Adj. R-squared	0.038	0.032	0.052	0.053	0.099	0.085	0.063	0.130
Countries	114	114	114	114	114	85	71	114

The method of estimation is ordinary least squares. The t-statistics, presented in parentheses, are calculated using heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. The asterisks indicate the level of statistical significance: *** indicates p < 0.01, ** indicates p < 0.05, and * indicates p < 0.1.