Appendix Table 1:
Full Regression Model of Base Case: Full Sample
Dependent Variable: Number of Hospitalizations from the Nursing Home
Conditional fixed-effects Poisson regression
Number of observations = 14,620,886
Number of groups = 15,718
observations per group:
min = 27
avg = 930.2
max = 1,002
Wald chi2(110) = 11866.77
Log pseudolikelihood = −8927513.8
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
(Std. err. Adjusted for clustering on id)
| Coefficient | Robust std. err. |
z | P>z | 95% conf. | interval | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RN hours | 0.002795 | 7.79E-05 | 35.87 | <0.001 | 0.002642 | 0.002947 | |
| LPN hours | 0.002603 | 6.94E-05 | 37.48 | <0.001 | 0.002466 | 0.002739 | |
| CAN hours | 0.000774 | 4.62E-05 | 16.76 | <0.001 | 0.000683 | 0.000864 | |
| 1 day lag RN hours | −0.00102 | 6.05E-05 | −16.81 | <0.001 | −0.00114 | −0.0009 | |
| 1 day lag LPN hours | −0.00101 | 5.14E-05 | −19.69 | <0.001 | −0.00111 | −0.00091 | |
| 1 day lag CNA hours | −0.00046 | 3.82E-05 | −11.95 | <0.001 | −0.00053 | −0.00038 | |
| Percent male | 0.003463 | 0.000207 | 16.73 | <0.001 | 0.003058 | 0.003869 | |
| Percent age 65 or less | 0.005515 | 0.000368 | 14.98 | <0.001 | 0.004794 | 0.006236 | |
| pctage65_74 | 0.006117 | 0.000293 | 20.86 | <0.001 | 0.005543 | 0.006692 | |
| pctage75_84 | 0.004348 | 0.000237 | 18.38 | <0.001 | 0.003884 | 0.004811 | |
| Percent Medicare Advantage | −0.00173 | 0.000231 | −7.5 | <0.001 | −0.00218 | −0.00128 | |
| Jan-17 | −0.00582 | 0.017593 | −0.33 | 0.741 | −0.0403 | 0.028666 | |
| Feb-17 | 0.154582 | 0.005393 | 28.67 | <0.001 | 0.144012 | 0.165151 | |
| Mar-17 | 0.174678 | 0.007983 | 21.88 | <0.001 | 0.159032 | 0.190324 | |
| Apr-17 | 0.128258 | 0.00882 | 14.54 | <0.001 | 0.110971 | 0.145545 | |
| May-17 | 0.115096 | 0.008917 | 12.91 | <0.001 | 0.097618 | 0.132573 | |
| Jun-17 | 0.099164 | 0.008807 | 11.26 | <0.001 | 0.081904 | 0.116424 | |
| Jul-17 | 0.065309 | 0.008853 | 7.38 | <0.001 | 0.047958 | 0.082661 | |
| Aug-17 | 0.087147 | 0.008749 | 9.96 | <0.001 | 0.069999 | 0.104295 | |
| Sep-17 | 0.090546 | 0.008594 | 10.54 | <0.001 | 0.073701 | 0.107391 | |
| Oct-17 | 0.096721 | 0.008598 | 11.25 | <0.001 | 0.079868 | 0.113573 | |
| Nov-17 | 0.099547 | 0.008659 | 11.5 | <0.001 | 0.082575 | 0.116518 | |
| Dec-17 | 0.152027 | 0.008327 | 18.26 | <0.001 | 0.135707 | 0.168347 | |
| Jan-18 | 0.231686 | 0.007924 | 29.24 | <0.001 | 0.216155 | 0.247217 | |
| Feb-18 | 0.174271 | 0.007959 | 21.9 | <0.001 | 0.158672 | 0.18987 | |
| Mar-18 | 0.142361 | 0.008027 | 17.74 | <0.001 | 0.126629 | 0.158093 | |
| Apr-18 | 0.122641 | 0.008195 | 14.97 | <0.001 | 0.106579 | 0.138703 | |
| May-18 | 0.093686 | 0.008257 | 11.35 | <0.001 | 0.077503 | 0.109869 | |
| Jun-18 | 0.078696 | 0.008139 | 9.67 | <0.001 | 0.062744 | 0.094648 | |
| Jul-18 | 0.070025 | 0.008036 | 8.71 | <0.001 | 0.054275 | 0.085775 | |
| Aug-18 | 0.083819 | 0.007951 | 10.54 | <0.001 | 0.068236 | 0.099403 | |
| Sep-18 | 0.078109 | 0.007946 | 9.83 | <0.001 | 0.062536 | 0.093683 | |
| Oct-18 | 0.091745 | 0.007728 | 11.87 | <0.001 | 0.076599 | 0.10689 | |
| Nov-18 | 0.07834 | 0.007808 | 10.03 | <0.001 | 0.063037 | 0.093644 | |
| Dec-18 | 0.094132 | 0.007611 | 12.37 | <0.001 | 0.079215 | 0.109049 | |
| Jan-19 | 0.141538 | 0.007398 | 19.13 | <0.001 | 0.127038 | 0.156038 | |
| Feb-19 | 0.142629 | 0.007009 | 20.35 | <0.001 | 0.128893 | 0.156366 | |
| Mar-19 | 0.138552 | 0.006835 | 20.27 | <0.001 | 0.125157 | 0.151948 | |
| Apr-19 | 0.113781 | 0.006824 | 16.67 | <0.001 | 0.100407 | 0.127155 | |
| May-19 | 0.085539 | 0.006785 | 12.61 | <0.001 | 0.072242 | 0.098836 | |
| Jun-19 | 0.061354 | 0.006765 | 9.07 | <0.001 | 0.048094 | 0.074614 | |
| Jul-19 | 0.058282 | 0.006559 | 8.89 | <0.001 | 0.045427 | 0.071138 | |
| Aug-19 | 0.038236 | 0.005584 | 6.85 | <0.001 | 0.027291 | 0.04918 | |
| Major RUG Group |
RUG Code |
Coefficient | Robust std. err. |
z | P>z | 95% conf. | interval |
| Behavioral Symptoms and Cognitive Performance | ba1 | 0.006547 | 0.000531 | 12.33 | <0.001 | 0.005506 | 0.007588 |
| ba2 | 0.004166 | 0.001641 | 2.54 | 0.011 | 0.00095 | 0.007381 | |
| bb1 | 0.008505 | 0.000531 | 16 | <0.001 | 0.007464 | 0.009547 | |
| bb2 | 0.003671 | 0.001543 | 2.38 | 0.017 | 0.000646 | 0.006695 | |
| Clinically Complex | ca1 | 0.010229 | 0.00088 | 11.62 | <0.001 | 0.008504 | 0.011954 |
| ca2 | 0.011779 | 0.001703 | 6.92 | <0.001 | 0.008441 | 0.015117 | |
| cb1 | 0.011881 | 0.000864 | 13.75 | <0.001 | 0.010187 | 0.013575 | |
| cb2 | 0.016374 | 0.003438 | 4.76 | <0.001 | 0.009635 | 0.023113 | |
| cc1 | 0.010164 | 0.000562 | 18.08 | <0.001 | 0.009062 | 0.011266 | |
| cc2 | 0.010332 | 0.002008 | 5.15 | <0.001 | 0.006396 | 0.014267 | |
| cd1 | 0.010293 | 0.000593 | 17.37 | <0.001 | 0.009131 | 0.011455 | |
| cd2 | 0.010185 | 0.001986 | 5.13 | <0.001 | 0.006293 | 0.014077 | |
| ce1 | 0.008007 | 0.000937 | 8.55 | <0.001 | 0.006171 | 0.009844 | |
| ce2 | 0.008822 | 0.003826 | 2.31 | 0.021 | 0.001324 | 0.01632 | |
| Extensive Services | es1 | 0.011822 | 0.001398 | 8.45 | <0.001 | 0.009081 | 0.014562 |
| es2 | 0.010938 | 0.001597 | 6.85 | <0.001 | 0.007807 | 0.014068 | |
| es3 | 0.008712 | 0.001996 | 4.37 | <0.001 | 0.004801 | 0.012624 | |
| Special Care High | hb1 | 0.010922 | 0.000974 | 11.22 | <0.001 | 0.009014 | 0.01283 |
| hb2 | 0.008333 | 0.001727 | 4.82 | <0.001 | 0.004948 | 0.011718 | |
| hc1 | 0.009431 | 0.000878 | 10.74 | <0.001 | 0.00771 | 0.011152 | |
| hc2 | 0.006885 | 0.001626 | 4.23 | <0.001 | 0.003698 | 0.010072 | |
| hd1 | 0.009922 | 0.000776 | 12.79 | <0.001 | 0.008401 | 0.011443 | |
| hd2 | 0.006278 | 0.001619 | 3.88 | <0.001 | 0.003105 | 0.00945 | |
| he1 | 0.010329 | 0.001079 | 9.58 | <0.001 | 0.008214 | 0.012443 | |
| he2 | 0.006903 | 0.002076 | 3.33 | 0.001 | 0.002835 | 0.010971 | |
| Special Care Low | lb1 | 0.015033 | 0.001058 | 14.21 | <0.001 | 0.01296 | 0.017106 |
| lb2 | 0.014114 | 0.003702 | 3.81 | <0.001 | 0.006859 | 0.021369 | |
| lc1 | 0.011452 | 0.000577 | 19.87 | <0.001 | 0.010322 | 0.012582 | |
| lc2 | 0.011764 | 0.002169 | 5.42 | <0.001 | 0.007513 | 0.016014 | |
| ld1 | 0.010339 | 0.000576 | 17.94 | <0.001 | 0.00921 | 0.011468 | |
| ld2 | 0.011236 | 0.001692 | 6.64 | <0.001 | 0.007919 | 0.014553 | |
| le1 | 0.009884 | 0.000764 | 12.93 | <0.001 | 0.008386 | 0.011382 | |
| le2 | 0.007856 | 0.002206 | 3.56 | <0.001 | 0.003532 | 0.01218 | |
| Reduced Physical Functioning | pa1 | 0.00777 | 0.00052 | 14.95 | <0.001 | 0.006751 | 0.008788 |
| pa2 | 0.008026 | 0.001431 | 5.61 | <0.001 | 0.005222 | 0.010831 | |
| pb1 | 0.007634 | 0.000539 | 14.15 | <0.001 | 0.006577 | 0.008691 | |
| pb2 | 0.008797 | 0.001105 | 7.96 | <0.001 | 0.006631 | 0.010963 | |
| pc1 | 0.008381 | 0.00045 | 18.64 | <0.001 | 0.0075 | 0.009263 | |
| pc2 | 0.00676 | 0.000747 | 9.05 | <0.001 | 0.005297 | 0.008224 | |
| pd1 | 0.0084 | 0.000413 | 20.32 | <0.001 | 0.007589 | 0.00921 | |
| pd2 | 0.00553 | 0.000874 | 6.33 | <0.001 | 0.003817 | 0.007243 | |
| pe1 | 0.006693 | 0.000671 | 9.98 | <0.001 | 0.005378 | 0.008008 | |
| pe2 | 0.004636 | 0.001325 | 3.5 | <0.001 | 0.002039 | 0.007233 | |
| Rehab and Rehab Plus Extensive | rha | 0.008448 | 0.000604 | 13.98 | <0.001 | 0.007264 | 0.009633 |
| rhb | 0.011513 | 0.000632 | 18.22 | <0.001 | 0.010274 | 0.012751 | |
| rhc | 0.011504 | 0.000568 | 20.26 | <0.001 | 0.010391 | 0.012617 | |
| rhl | 0.016735 | 0.003125 | 5.35 | <0.001 | 0.010609 | 0.022861 | |
| rhx | 0.017419 | 0.002393 | 7.28 | <0.001 | 0.012729 | 0.022108 | |
| rla | 0.007349 | 0.000721 | 10.19 | <0.001 | 0.005935 | 0.008762 | |
| rlb | 0.008029 | 0.000986 | 8.14 | <0.001 | 0.006097 | 0.009961 | |
| rlx | 0.015218 | 0.004622 | 3.29 | 0.001 | 0.006159 | 0.024276 | |
| rma | 0.007689 | 0.000466 | 16.49 | <0.001 | 0.006775 | 0.008603 | |
| rmb | 0.009195 | 0.00043 | 21.38 | <0.001 | 0.008352 | 0.010038 | |
| rmc | 0.009279 | 0.000433 | 21.43 | <0.001 | 0.008431 | 0.010128 | |
| rml | 0.013684 | 0.00393 | 3.48 | <0.001 | 0.005982 | 0.021386 | |
| rmx | 0.007214 | 0.003217 | 2.24 | 0.025 | 0.000909 | 0.013519 | |
| rua | 0.010369 | 0.000443 | 23.42 | <0.001 | 0.009501 | 0.011236 | |
| rub | 0.009272 | 0.000424 | 21.86 | <0.001 | 0.008441 | 0.010103 | |
| ruc | 0.011112 | 0.000476 | 23.35 | <0.001 | 0.01018 | 0.012045 | |
| rul | 0.015571 | 0.002003 | 7.78 | <0.001 | 0.011646 | 0.019496 | |
| rux | 0.012584 | 0.002795 | 4.5 | <0.001 | 0.007106 | 0.018063 | |
| rva | 0.01164 | 0.00059 | 19.73 | <0.001 | 0.010484 | 0.012796 | |
| rvb | 0.012082 | 0.000608 | 19.86 | <0.001 | 0.01089 | 0.013274 | |
| rvc | 0.013594 | 0.000609 | 22.32 | <0.001 | 0.012401 | 0.014788 | |
| rvl | 0.025555 | 0.002493 | 10.25 | <0.001 | 0.020668 | 0.030441 | |
| rvx | 0.021725 | 0.001883 | 11.54 | <0.001 | 0.018034 | 0.025416 | |
| Unknown | 0.032939 | 0.002768 | 11.9 | 0 | <0.001 | 0.038364 | |