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. 2022 Dec 22;7(2):171–183. doi: 10.1038/s41562-022-01491-8

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — a, Predicted start date for pottery vessels in the region based on spatial–temporal regression models. b, The modelled posterior probability distribution for selected locations based on radiocarbon evidence compared to the predicted dates. For details on how the models are constructed, see Supplementary Methods.