Table 4.
Results of sensitivity analyses: Estimated total discounted lifetime cost attributable to HPV infections acquired in 2018 when varying key assumptions (2019 US dollars)
| Description of analysis | Ages 15–59 years | Ages 15–24 years |
|---|---|---|
| Base case analysis* | $774,046,000 | $407,447,000 |
| One-way sensitivity analyses | ||
| Lower cost per case for all health outcomes** | $430,798,000 | $231,073,000 |
| Higher cost per case for all health outcomes** | $1,143,331,000 | $555,948,000 |
| Lower number of cases (10th percentile) of health outcomes attributable to HPV† | $361,540,000 | $185,072,000 |
| Higher number of cases (90th percentile) of health outcomes attributable to HPV† | $1,397,540,000 | $774,711,000 |
| Probabilistic sensitivity analyses ‡ | ||
| 2.5th percentile | $313,701,000 | $162,728,000 |
| 10th percentile | $413,288,000 | $205,947,000 |
| 25th percentile | $552,264,000 | $272,602,000 |
| Median | $769,221,000 | $393,671,000 |
| 75th percentile | $1,012,965,000 | $538,292,000 |
| 90th percentile | $1,279,783,000 | $720,805,000 |
| 97.5th percentile | $1,570,867,000 | $899,222,000 |
Costs occurring after 2018 were discounted to 2018 at an annual rate of 3%. Results have been rounded to the nearest $1,000.
The age groupings refer to age at the time of the causal HPV infection (2018), not the age at which the health outcome was diagnosed.
The base case results are the same as listed in Table 3 and are included here for ease of comparison.
These results were obtained when setting all the cost per case estimates (Table 1) to their lower bound values, or when setting all to their upper bound values.
These results were obtained when setting the numbers of diagnosed cases predicted by the HPV-ADVISE model (Table 1) to the lower bound values (10th percentile of model projections) for all health outcomes, or when setting all to their upper bound values (90th percentile of model projections).
These results were obtained from the probabilistic sensitivity analyses in which the total estimated lifetime cost of diseases attributable to HPV infections acquired in 2018 was calculated 10,000 times, each time obtaining a random value for all cost values listed in Table 1, all case numbers listed in Table 2, and the ratio of recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (RRP) costs to genital warts costs as described in the methods section.